These examples and many more like them (starting with the ancient view that the Earth is at the center of the Universe and the Sun revolves around it), demonstrate that progress in astronomy can be delayed by the erroneous proposition that we know the truth even without experimental feedback. Lapses of this type can be avoided by a honest and open-minded approach to scientific exploration, which I label as having a “non-informative prior” (so called “Jeffreys prior” in Bayesian statistics). This unbiased approach, which is common among successful crime detectives, gives priority to evidence over imagination, and allows nature itself to guide us to the correct answer. Its basic premise is humility, the recognition that nature is much richer than our imagination is able to anticipate.
Uniformity of opinions is sterile; the co-existence of multiple ideas cultivates competition and progress. Of course, it is difficult to know in advance which exploratory path will bear fruit, and the back yard of astronomy is full of novel ideas that were proven wrong.
Wednesday, February 28, 2018
Uniformity of opinions is sterile
From On the Benefits of Promoting Diversity of Ideas by Abraham Loeb. The field is astronomy but the principle is universal.
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