There is no a priori way to distinguish between "creative destruction" and long-term decline

A nice turn of phrase from The Shift by Richard Fernandez.

Unfortunately there is no a priori way to distinguish between "creative destruction" and long-term decline. They look too much alike at the start. For all too many "disruptive innovation" will be indistinguishable, in the short run at least, from unemployment.

Governmental devolvement of power back to the states, the advent of artificial intelligence, the possibility of global warming. Only in hindsight will we know which were heralds of creative destruction and which were harbingers of decline.