Forecasting guidelines

Clearing out some old files, I came across this list. No identifying author, heading, url; just a sheet of printed paper. It is a quick reference list of statistics and forecasting. Rather than simply throw it out, here are the guidelines:

Comparison classes should inform your probability estimates

Hunt for the right information

Adjust and update your forecasts when appropriate

Mathematical and statistical models can help

Post-mortem analyses help you improve

Select the right questions to answer

Know the power players

Norms and protocols of domestic and international institutions matter

Other perspectives aside from power politics can also inform your forecasts

Wildcards, accidents and black swans can catch you off-guard if you don't consider the risk of irreducible uncertainty