Tuesday, October 22, 2019

If that son of a bitch up there believes in me, he better save my ass now!

I like learning something I did not know and feeling cheered for having learned it. From Once Upon a Time, an American Athletic Star Bombed the Chi-Coms by Rich Lowry. In argument, the article is a rebuke of the privileged athletes who demean our flag and kow-tow to tyrants in order to line their pockets with lucre. And to be clear, we have more athletes who are heroes and do their duty than there are the self-servers. But the self-servers stand out and get the attention.

I am not much, in fact scarcely at all, a sports fan. My knowledge is skimpy.

The subject of this piece is Ted Williams, whose name I recognize but about whom I did not know much more than I might have picked up from Cheers.

What a fascinating story and career.
Our athletes once weren’t so transnational in their orientation, or so willing to toss aside American values, or so deferential to Chinese Communists. In fact, once upon a time, one of the greatest American sports stars of all time risked his career — and his life — to fly dozens of missions against the North Korea forces and their Chinese allies in the Korean War.

The Red Sox slugger was perhaps the greatest hitter to ever live and, in the years of playing time he lost serving his country during two wars, a sterling example of patriotic commitment and a standing rebuke to contemporary sports stars who can’t bear the thought of offending the government and people of a hostile power.

One can only imagine what the famously gruff, profane Splendid Splinter would say about highly paid celebrities bending a knee to the power that, in league with its North Korean partner, tried to shoot him from the sky.

Ted Williams was a stubborn, independent personality who wasn’t thrilled about interrupting his career for either war. When World War II broke out, his mother was financially dependent on him, so he was initially classified as 3A.

[snip]

He signed up to be a Naval aviator, and excelled. His teammate Johnny Pesky, also in the aviation program for a time, attested, “He mastered intricate problems in fifteen minutes which took the average cadet an hour, and half of the other cadets there were college grads.” According to Pesky, Williams also displayed remarkable talent in his training in the air: “I heard Ted literally tore the sleeve target to shreds with his angle dives. He’d shoot from wingovers, zooms, and barrel rolls, and after a few passes the sleeve was ribbons. At any rate, I know he broke the all-time record for hits.”

Williams had a close call or two in training but served as a flight instructor and was awaiting assignment in the Pacific when the war ended.

He returned to baseball and then was recalled by the Marines during the Korean War. Williams resented that he was being tapped again after already giving up three years of his career. He suspected — as did others — that the Marines wanted him primarily for publicity. At age 33, another turn in the service could mean the end of his career.

But there was no alternative. The Red Sox held a Ted Williams Day on his last game before he was to report for duty, and he hit a home run in what could have been the last at-bat of his career.

He learned to fly a much more powerful plane than he’d flown in World War II, the Grumman F9F Panther. On his very first mission, he took part in a 35-plane attack against a training facility south of Pyongyang, flew in too low, got hit, and had to limp back to an airfield, crash-landing with his plane in flames.

Williams could have tried to eject, but only at risk of serious injury, as Ben Bradlee Jr. notes in his biography of Williams, The Kid. At almost 6 feet, 4 inches, he had to be shoehorned into the cockpit — literally. Crew chiefs stood on his shoulders to pound him all the way in before he took off.

[snip]

He also recounted later that, unable to lower his landing gear as he approached the runway, he said what passed for a prayer for Ted Williams: “If that son of a bitch up there believes in me, he better save my ass now!”

He suffered only a sprained ankle from jamming the brakes as hard as he could.

He flew another bombing mission less than 24 hours later, Bradlee notes. His commander didn’t want him to get cold feet.

Altogether, he flew 39 missions, many of them as the wingman of the future astronaut John Glenn.

Monday, October 21, 2019

Off Beat Humor


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Best of the Bee




Gusty by Heide Presse, (b.1958, German)

Gusty by Heide Presse, (b.1958, German)

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AI systems hold the promise of selection without prejudice. But they will still deliver disparate impact outcomes.

Kind of an interesting and unremarked set of issues in this article, AI used for first time in job interviews in UK to find best applicants by Charles Hymas.

Whenever we speak of technological innovation, it is common for the conversation to become unmoored from the present reality and instead assess the technology (or really, any change) based on how close or far it comes to some perceived ideal. And that of course is an entirely unrealizable goal.

The article begins:
Artificial intelligence (AI) and face recognition technology is being used for the first time in job interviews in the UK to identify the best candidates.
Yep. Beginning to happen everywhere.
The algorithms select the best applicants by assessing their performances in the videos against about 25,000 pieces of facial and linguistic information compiled from previous interviews of those who have gone on to prove to be good at the job.
But then there are the concerns:
However, academics and campaigners warned that any AI or facial recognition technology would inevitably have in-built biases in its databases that could discriminate against some candidates and exclude talented applicants who might not conform to the norm.

“It is going to favour people who are good at doing interviews on video and any data set will have biases in it which will rule out people who actually would have been great at the job,” said Anna Cox, professor of human-computer interaction at UCL.
The academics seem to have a fair concern. But do they really?

Of course the AI interviewing system is going to produce biased results. It is supposed to do so. It is supposed to be identifying those who are the most knowledgeable, proficient, capable and reliable. These are not randomly and normally distributed traits. There will obviously be relative degrees of unrepresentativeness based on age, class, education attainment, IQ, religion, ethnicity, personality type, cultural origin, etc.

The article elaborates on the how of the process.
“There are 350-ish features that we look at in language: do you use passive or active words? Do you talk about ‘I’ or ‘We.’ What is the word choice or sentence length? In doctors, you might expect a good one to use more technical language,” he said.

“Then we look at the tone of voice. If someone speaks really slowly, you are probably not going to stay on the phone to buy something from them. If someone speaks at 400 words a minute, people are not going to understand them. Empathy is a piece of that.”

The company says the tecnology is different to facial recognition and instead analyses expressions. Facial expressions assessed by the algorithms include brow furrowing, brow raising, eye widening or closing, lip tightening, chin raising and smiling, which are important in sales or other public-facing jobs.

“Facial expressions indicate certain emotions, behaviours and personality traits,” said Nathan Mondragon, Hirevue’s chief psychologist.

“We get about 25,000 data points from 15 minutes of video per candidate. The text, the audio and the video come together to give us a very clear analysis and rich data set of how someone is responding, the emotions and cognitions they go through.”

Candidates are ranked on a scale of one to 100 against the database of traits of previous “successful” candidates, with the process taking days rather than weeks or months, says the company. It claims one firm had a 15 per cent uplift in sales.
All seems above board. It is a new field. Not all the variables will end up being predictive, some of the weighting will be poor, etc.

And it seems to work. If you get a 15% lift in sales in a competitive market, that is gold.

Now, of course they are selling something. It is a new technology so we need to anticipate a lot of overclaiming. Enthusiasm will displace the gimlet eye.

But the naysayers are perhaps even worse. Wanting to stop progress because someone, somewhere, might be upset.

There is no doubt the AI will make some bad calls, selecting someone who should not have been and overlooking someone who should not have been. It will also be the case that there will seem to be unintentional biases because some groups, however defined, will be over- and others under-represented.

But the question is not whether AI will make mistakes. The question is whether it will make fewer mistakes than the human process? I think it is safe to say that it will end up, through trial and error, to be found to make fewer and different errors. It will end up opening more opportunities to some (individuals fully able but with some unconsciously discriminated against attribute, and fewer opportunities to others (those individuals possessing attributes which are socially valued but unrelated to effectiveness).

It will be messy, it will take a while, but AI likely will end up being positively contributive to improved hiring outcomes.

Concerns that it will have its own hidden biases betrays the ideological nature of much of the nay-saying left.

It also betrays the incoherence of such thinking. You cannot reconcile a belief in diversity and multiculturalism with the outcomes of an unbiased AI system. If you value diversity and multiculturalism, you will inherently see disparate outcomes arising from unbiased selection processes. Disparate inputs will lead to disparate outputs.

If a business needs employees with exceptional attention to detail, strong consistency of performance, and high adherence to promptness, those attributes will not be equally distributed across all demographics of age, class, education attainment, IQ, religion, ethnicity, personality type, cultural origin, etc.. There will be patterns or correlation.

There will be patterns of disparate outcome.

Whether you see that as a problem or not is a moral and ideological issue. It is also a question as to whether you think humans are more likely to achieve completely non-prejudicial judgments or AI systems.
“I would much prefer having my first screening with an algorithm that treats me fairly rather than one that depends on how tired the recruiter is that day,” said Mr Larsen.
Indeed. Unprejudiced AI systems should be a god-send in circumventing unconscious prejudice. But bias-free AI systems will still deliver disparate impact outcomes.

I see. You're not an atheist, you're a moron.

Awkward, touching, uncomfortable, moving. A comedian's testament. It is a story well told with occasional guffaws.


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The clothes she wears, her sexy ways Make an old man wish for younger days

Somehow, improbably, The Commodores and their hit Brick House came up in conversation this past weekend. My ignorance of pop music being pretty comprehensive, I first did not recall it. The Commodores I recognized as a name but could not call to mind any of their hits.

Googling them I see that I do in fact know (and enjoy) a handful of their songs.

However, in the conversation, Brick House came up and then, of course, had to be played.

I recognized it as a popular but innocuous song from my college days. Then I started listening to the lyrics. Well, innocuous doesn't quite cover it. Can't see this being recorded in today's easily offended environment.


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Brick House
by the Commodores

Ow, she's a brick house
She's mighty-mighty, just lettin' it all hang out
She's a brick house
That lady's stacked and that's a fact
Ain't holding nothing back

Ow, she's a brick house
Well put-together, everybody knows
This is how the story goes

She knows she got everything
That a woman needs to get a man, yeah, yeah
How can she lose with the stuff she use
Thirty-six, twenty-four, thirty-six oh what a winning hand

'Cause she's a brick house
She's mighty-mighty, just lettin' it all hang out
She's a brick house
Ow, that lady stacked and that's a fact
Ain't holding nothing back

Ow, she's a brick house
Yeah, she's the one, the only one, built like an amazon

The clothes she wears, her sexy ways
Make an old man wish for younger days, yeah, yeah
She knows she's built and knows how to please
Sure enough to knock a strong man to his knees

'Cause she's a brick house
Yeah, she's mighty mighty, just lettin' it all hang out
She's a brick house
The lady's stacked and that's a fact
Ain't holding nothing back

Shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down now

Brick house
Yeah, she's mighty mighty, just lettin' it all hang out
She's a brick house
Yeah, she's the one, the only one, built like an amazon, yeah
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it, shake it
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it down now
Shake it down, shake it down, shake it

Ow, a brick house
Love that line, Make an old man wish for younger days.

Urban Data Visualization



Several visual notes beyond the acceleration of city creation over time.
The Middle East as a hub/seed bed for urban development.

The two wings into Europe and then Asia

The creation of the Eurasian arc

The Eurasian Arc and the Great Silk Road

The increasing concentration of urban growth in Europe for much of the period

The New World urban expansion did not follow a trade route model as in Eurasia

Sunday, October 20, 2019

Off Beat Humor


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Formerly every Thing printed was believed, because it was in Print: Now Things seem to be disbelieved for just the very same Reason.

From “A Traveller”: News-Writers’ Nonsense, 20 May 1765 printed in The Public Advertiser, May 22, 1765 by Benjamin Franklin. An early example of the American gift for exaggeration. Franklin, in this and an earlier piece, is playing with the notion of newspapers as a source of news.
The very Tails of the American Sheep are so laden with Wool, that each has a Car or Waggon on four little Wheels to support and keep it from trailing on the Ground. Would they caulk their Ships? would they fill their Beds? would they even litter their Horses with Wool, if it was not both plenty and cheap? And what signifies Dearness of Labour, where an English Shilling passes for Five-and-twenty? Their engaging three hundred Silk Throwsters here in one Week for New York was treated as a Fable, because, forsooth, they have “no Silk there to throw.” Those who made this Objection perhaps did not know, that at the same Time the Agents from the King of Spain were at Quebec contracting for 1000 Pieces of Cannon to be made there for the Fortifications of Mexico, with 25,000 Axes for their Industrious Logwood-Cutters; and at New-York engaging an annual Supply of warm Floor-Carpets for their West-India Houses; other Agents from the Emperor of China were at Boston in New-England treating about an Exchange of Raw-Silk for Wool, to be carried on in Chinese Jonks through the Straits of Magellan. And yet all this is as certainly true as the Account, said to be from Quebec, in the Papers of last Week, that the Inhabitants of Canada are making Preparations for a Cod and Whale Fishery this Summer in the Upper Lakes. Ignorant People may object that the Upper Lakes are fresh, and that Cod and Whale are Salt-water Fish: But let them know, Sir, that Cod, like other Fish, when attacked by their Enemies, fly into any Water where they think they can be safest; that Whales, when they have a Mind to eat Cod, pursue them wherever they fly; and that the grand Leap of the Whale in that Chace up the Fall of Niagara is esteemed by all who have seen it, as one of the finest Spectacles in Nature! Really, Sir, the World is grown too incredulous: Pendulum-like, it is ever swinging from one Extream to another. Formerly every Thing printed was believed, because it was in Print: Now Things seem to be disbelieved for just the very same Reason. Wise Men wonder at the present Growth of Infidelity! They should have consider’d, when they taught People to doubt the Authority of News-papers, and the Truth of Predictions in Almanacs, that the next Step might be a Disbelief in the well-vouch’d Accounts of Ghosts and Witches, and Doubts even of the Truth of the A——n Creed.