Wednesday, December 26, 2018

The more radical, the less grounded in reality.

Timely. From Metacognitive Failure as a Feature of Those Holding Radical Beliefs by Max Rollwage, Raymond J.Dolan, and Stephen M.Fleming. From the Abstract:
Widening polarization about political, religious, and scientific issues threatens open societies, leading to entrenchment of beliefs, reduced mutual understanding, and a pervasive negativity surrounding the very idea of consensus. Such radicalization has been linked to systematic differences in the certainty with which people adhere to particular beliefs. However, the drivers of unjustified certainty in radicals are rarely considered from the perspective of models of metacognition, and it remains unknown whether radicals show alterations in confidence bias (a tendency to publicly espouse higher confidence), metacognitive sensitivity (insight into the correctness of one’s beliefs), or both. Within two independent general population samples (n = 381 and n = 417), here we show that individuals holding radical beliefs (as measured by questionnaires about political attitudes) display a specific impairment in metacognitive sensitivity about low-level perceptual discrimination judgments. Specifically, more radical participants displayed less insight into the correctness of their choices and reduced updating of their confidence when presented with post-decision evidence. Our use of a simple perceptual decision task enables us to rule out effects of previous knowledge, task performance, and motivational factors underpinning differences in metacognition. Instead, our findings highlight a generic resistance to recognizing and revising incorrect beliefs as a potential driver of radicalization.
It is a small study, survey not observational, etc. But interesting if true.

For all the talk about polarization, I think America is pretty unified. I think the mainstream media has had a tendency to exaggerate isolated instances in order to create a much greater appearance of division than there really is. There is a small fringe of radicals - white nationalists, the much larger number of Antifa, shouters and protesters on campus about gender or race identity, DSA, etc. - who are <1% of the population but who create 95% of the headlines. We are not suffering polarization, we are suffering an overexposure of radicalization which is actually miniscule. Anything we can learn about the mind of the radical, the better. If we could put Eric Hoffer's insights in The True Believer onto an evidentiary base, that would be ideal. Reduce the exposure of the fringe radicals and you most likely reduce the sense of polarization.

Sir Lawrence Alma-Tadema's Library

Sir Lawrence Alma-Tadema's Library in Townshend House, London, 1867 by Anna Alma-Tadema

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Tuesday, December 25, 2018

At Last GLAST

At Last GLAST. From NASA's Astronomy Picture of the Day.

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Image Credit: NASA, DOE, Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope Collaboration
Explanation: Rising through a billowing cloud of smoke, a long time ago from a planet very very close by, this Delta II rocket left Cape Canaveral Air Force Station's launch pad 17-B at 12:05 pm EDT on June 11, 2008. Snug in the payload section was GLAST, the Gamma-ray Large Area Space Telescope. GLAST's detector technology was developed for use in terrestrial particle accelerators. So from orbit, GLAST can detect gamma-rays from extreme environments above the Earth and across the distant Universe, including supermassive black holes at the centers of distant active galaxies, and the sources of powerful gamma-ray bursts. Those formidable cosmic accelerators achieve energies not attainable in earthbound laboratories. Now known as the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope, on the 10 year anniversary of its launch, let the Fermi Science Playoffs begin.

Golden Nativity

From the British Museum.
Copy of Giottesque composition; depicting the Nativity, three wise men kneel before Christ, the Virgin and Joseph, men wearing turbans at l with camels and horses, buildings and archway at the far l Graphite, with grey wash and gold

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The First Nowell by King's College Cambridge

The First Nowell by King's College Cambridge 2008


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Monday, December 24, 2018

In The Bleak Midwinter

In The Bleak Midwinter by Choir of Kings College, Cambridge


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In the Bleak Midwinter
by Christina Rossetti

In the bleak mid-winter
Frosty wind made moan;
Earth stood hard as iron,
Water like a stone;
Snow had fallen, snow on snow,
Snow on snow,
In the bleak mid-winter
Long ago.

Our God, heaven cannot hold Him
Nor earth sustain,
Heaven and earth shall flee away
When He comes to reign:
In the bleak mid-winter
A stable-place sufficed
The Lord God Almighty —
Jesus Christ.

Enough for Him, whom Cherubim
Worship night and day,
A breastful of milk
And a mangerful of hay;
Enough for Him, whom Angels
Fall down before,
The ox and ass and camel
Which adore.

Angels and Archangels
May have gathered there,
Cherubim and seraphim
Thronged the air;
But only His Mother
In her maiden bliss
Worshipped the Beloved
With a kiss.

What can I give Him,
Poor as I am? —
If I were a Shepherd
I would bring a lamb;
If I were a Wise Man
I would do my part, —
Yet what I can I give Him, —
Give my heart.

Dusty With a Chance of Dust

Dusty With a Chance of Dust. From NASA's Astronomy Picture of the Day.

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Image Credit: NASA, JPL-Caltech, MSSS, Curiosity Mars Rover
Explanation: It's storm season on Mars. Dusty with a chance of dust is the weather report for Gale crater as a recent planet-scale dust storm rages. On June 10 looking toward the east-northeast crater rim about 30 kilometers away, the Curiosity rover's Mastcam captured this image of its local conditions so far. Meanwhile over 2,000 kilometers away, the Opportunity rover ceased science operations as the storm grew thicker at its location on the west rim of Endeavour crater, and has stopped communicating, waiting out the storm for now. Curiosity is powered by a radioisotope thermoelectric generator, but the smaller Opportunity rover uses solar panels to charge its batteries. For Opportunity, the increasingly severe lack of sunlight has caused its batteries to run low.

The Mandarin Class cares not for the validity of an argument, they care who is making the argument.


From The end of leaning in: How Sheryl Sandberg’s message of empowerment fully unraveled by Caitlin Gibson.

See here for my past takes on Sandberg's Lean in thesis.

At the time Lean In was published there were plenty of people in the center (Classical Liberals) and on the right (Hayekians, Friedmanites, Burkeans, etc.) who took exception to bad advice. Nobody can have it all. Life is full of trade-offs and though some achieve more than others, they always sacrifice things along the way. The message that everyone can have it all if only they lean in was derided as both wrong and deceptive to those who aren't already multi-millionaires. It seemed to be yet one further instance of an exceptionally wealthy and privileged person with advanced degrees, trying to imply that everyone can be exceptionally wealthy and privileged and have advanced degrees if only they want it enough. If people fail, it is because they didn't try enough is the corollary. This type of messaging borders on evil.

And so we of the center and right all said, and for that we were all dismissed as shills of the patriarchy because we refused to bend the knee to the superior wisdom of the oracle of Sandberg. It didn't matter the data, the philosophical underpinnings or the logic. We were engaged in unacceptable wrong-think. But what we said was true and now, five years later, the Mandarin Class are beginning to see that we were speaking the truth. Not that they would acknowledge that.

This whole article by Gibson is not about the vindication of the original criticisms, though there is a passing reference to them. What the article seems to focus on is showing that the life experiences of believers on the left belie the Sandberg hypothesis. It is as if we can acknowledge that the Sandberg Hypothesis was wrong only because Mandarin Class has now seen that the hypothesis does not match their own reality.

There is little sense from the article that the Sandberg Hypothesis was already wrong for known and verifiable reasons. Which is a pity. Truth is not a monopoly of left, right or center. We are all explorers trying to make sense of often confusing and shifting patterns of information. It is the underlying principles, the evidence and the logic which helps us hone in on the truth. To take the position, consciously or not, that truth depends on political position is regrettable.
The Lean In movement launched by Facebook Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg is officially over. Done. Fin.

Sandberg’s brand of self-empowerment feminism has endured waves of criticism ever since her 2013 best-selling book, “Lean In: Women, Work and the Will to Lead” became a cultural phenomenon. But in the waning weeks of 2018 — a year in which Facebook was besieged by high-profile scandals, and the #MeToo movement continued to train attention on the barriers facing working women — the potency of Sandberg’s individualistic, motivational mantra has fully eroded.

Last month, a blockbuster investigation by the New York Times detailed Facebook’s stumbles amid an onslaught of crises, including Sandberg’s efforts to distract from the fact that Russians were using the platform to try to influence the 2016 presidential election. The story left Sandberg’s long-cultivated image as a righteous feminist icon and relatable role model in shambles.

But the final, fatal blow to the Lean In brand was a brutally blunt dismissal from Michelle Obama: “I tell women, that whole ‘you can have it all’ — nope, not at the same time; that’s a lie,” Obama told a sold-out crowd at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn during a Dec. 1 stop on a tour promoting her memoir. “It’s not always enough to lean in, because that s--- doesn’t work all the time.”

To the women who had fallen out of love with “Lean In” and the women who never loved it at all, these were resounding last words, received with relief and recognition.

“Oh, I was so happy,” says Minda Harts, founder of The Memo, an organization that supports women of color in the workplace. “I was so happy she used her platform to address this.”

“I nodded my head vigorously,” says Katherine Goldstein, a former Lean In evangelist and the host of a forthcoming podcast about working mothers called “The Double Shift.”

“I laughed,” says Audrey Kingo, deputy editor of Working Mother magazine, where the themes of Lean In — work/life balance, ambition, workplace culture — are constant topics of coverage and conversation. “I feel like her words resonated with me in the same way they resonated with every person in that audience.”
You can't help but feel from Gibson's reporting that the truth depends on who is speaking. If Sandberg says something that most Americans think is errant nonsense, then the Mandarin Class goes with Sandberg. If Obama says Sandberg is talking through a hat, then the Mandarin Class now agree that Sandberg doesn't know what she is talking about. It is an insular epistemic systemic, unmoored to reality and isolated from the more pragmatic wisdom of the masses. The Mandarin Class cares not for the validity of an argument, they care who is making the argument.

All My Christmases by Bill Bragg

All My Christmases by Bill Bragg

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Never had a market flatlined as quickly as the market for socialist bloc cosmetics

From Two Cheers for Anarchism by James C. Scott.
In an effort to improve my barely existing German-language skills before spending a year in Berlin as a guest of the Wissenschaftskolleg, I hit on the idea of finding work on a farm rather than attending daily classes with pimply teenagers at a Goethe Institut center. Since the Wall had come down only a year earlier, I wondered whether I might be able to find a six-week summer job on a collective farm (landwirtschaftliche Produktionsgenossenschaft, or LPG), recently styled “cooperative,” in eastern Germany. A friend at the Wissenschaftskolleg had, it turned out, a close relative whose brother-in-law was the head of a collective farm in the tiny village of Pletz. Though wary, the brother-in-law was willing to provide room and board in return for work and a handsome weekly rent.

As a plan for improving my German by the sink-or-swim method, it was perfect; as a plan for a pleasant and edifying farm visit, it was a nightmare. The villagers and, above all, my host were suspicious of my aims. Was I aiming to pore over the accounts of the collective farm and uncover “irregularities”? Was I an advance party for Dutch farmers, who were scouting the area for land to rent in the aftermath of the socialist bloc’s collapse?

The collective farm at Pletz was a spectacular example of that collapse. Its specialization was growing “starch potatoes.” They were no good for pommes frites, though pigs might eat them in a pinch; their intended use, when refined, was to provide the starch base for Eastern European cosmetics. Never had a market flatlined as quickly as the market for socialist bloc cosmetics the day after the Wall was breached. Mountain after mountain of starch potatoes lay rotting beside the rail sidings in the summer sun.