Tuesday, June 9, 2015

Oh, well.

The phrase facepalm has never particularly resonated with me. Till now.




Not recognizing Triceratops (from Jurassic Park) or not recognizing the famous director Steven Spielberg. Which is more embarrassing?

UPDATE: Joyce Carol Oates claims it was intended as a joke.

Significantly beyond simple quotidian failures

From 'Primates of Park Avenue,' Stranger Than Nonfiction by Megan McArdle.
Nonetheless, when excerpts from Wednesday Martin's new book, "Primates of Park Avenue," started appearing, my first suspicion was that however difficult it may be to exaggerate the crazy behavior of New York's wealthiest citizens, someone had finally managed it. For example, that piece on "wife bonuses" that took the Internet by storm. I don't find it hard to believe that some sad soul, somewhere, gives his wife annual performance reviews under appallingly transactional terms written into their prenup, and then doles out a bonus accordingly. It's a big, crazy world out there, and almost anything you can think of is probably being done by someone. I did find it very, very difficult to believe that this practice is anything like the broad subcultural phenomenon that the Times piece suggests. ("I don’t necessarily think it’s a trend or widespread," Martin told New York Magazine's Annie Lowrey, which is not exactly the impression I got from either the excerpt, or the book.)
The rest of the article is a pretty thorough evisceration of the empirical reliability of Wednesday Martin as an author.

I know its not true but you almost can't help thinking: Is there anything being published these days that you can come close to trusting?
Anthropological Frauds
Primates of Park Avenue committed by Wednesday Martin
On the Run committed by Alice Goffman

Police Brutality Frauds
McKinney Brawl Another Rush to Misjudgment? exposed by Andrew Branca
Michael Brown and Ferguson summarized by Legal Insurrection

Campus Rape Epidemic Frauds
UVA Hoax committed by Sabrina Rubin Erdely
Emma Sulkowicz Hoax exposed by Cathy Young
That's all roughly within the last six months. These are not local abnormalities. These are national stories held to be hugely revealing of some underlying tragedy or pathology and then essentially having to be retracted in near toto once the facts were brought into the conversation.

Mistakes, errors, biases. All par for the course but these examples seem to go way beyond those quotidian failings. What's going on here? Seems like an awful lot of major retractions going on.

The problem is categorical declamations of certain knowledge

An interesting article and topic, Over 95 percent of the world's population has health problems -- with over a third having more than 5 ailments from The Lancet.

There is no doubt that global health is a vast and complex issue with an enormous importance and impact. At the same time, while acknowledging that to be true, it is also responsible to maintain some skepticism about the quality of data with which we are working, the models we are using to make forecasts, and the motivations of those doing the research. In all these respects, global morbidity is very similar to global climate. Important, complex, consequential and yet our knowledge frontiers are far too limited.

And advocacy/self-interested confirmation bias are not inconsequential gremlins in our efforts to push back the knowledge frontiers.
Just one in 20 people worldwide (4·3%) had no health problems in 2013, with a third of the world's population (2·3 billion individuals) experiencing more than five ailments, according to a major new analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2013, published in The Lancet.

Moreover, the research shows that, worldwide, the proportion of lost years of healthy life (disability-adjusted life years; DALYS [1]) due to illness (rather than death) rose from around a fifth (21%) in 1990 to almost a third (31%) in 2013.
Only 5% optimally healthy? That is wonderfully alarming, a call to action. But is it meaningfully real? Even from this summary article, there is reason to be skeptical.

Its not that we should cease efforts to roll back the knowledge frontier or refrain from publicising incremental and only partially understood knowledge gains. Those activities are just part of the natural process of acquiring knowledge.

No, this is simply a call for skepticism and a caution that categorical declamations about complex processes are usually deceitful and/or wrong.

Monday, June 8, 2015

Cranky, not anxious

It is hard to read Anxious Students Strain College Mental Health Centers by Jan Hoffman and keep the cranky old Calvinist man under wraps.

Having reached the end of the story, my instinctive response is 1) too much narcissism, 2) too much indulgence, 3) too little transparency and accountability, 4) too many excuses, and 5) too many unfounded expectations.
Too much narcissism - The world is full of wonders and real challenges, why is how you feel of such preeminent importance?

Too much indulgence - What happened to "Deal with it"?

Too little transparency and accountability - Why are taxpayers paying to make kids feel better about themselves?

Too many excuses - Anxiety seems like the mental equivalent of lower back injury; a claimable but not easily falsifiable excuse.

Too many unfounded expectations - Are these kids really ready for adult life? If they can't handle the protected environment of University, how are they going to fare in the outside world?
Is this the consequence of constant self-esteem boosting through their first eighteen years, or possibly a result of ever-affirming helicopter parents?

Perhaps. Empirically, on virtually every measure, the world is a better place than twenty-five and fifty years ago. So why so anxious?

Perhaps the revenue hungry universities are letting in far more people than are prepared to obtain the full advantage of a college education at this early a stage in life.

I don't know. But the cranky skeptic seems to have the better position than the reasonable man who tries to interpret the article in as generous a way as possible.

Don't colonize their lives with your good intentions.

Ben Horowitz' commencement speech to the Columbia University Class of 2015, Career Advice for Recent Graduates.

He has four themes. My paraphrasing of his ideas:
Think for yourself - It sounds trivial but it is much harder and much more profound than that.

Don't Follow Your Passion - Passions are hard to prioritize. Passions are subject to change. Passion doesn't correlate with ability. Passion is ego-centric.

Follow Your Contribution - What you put in is much more important than what you take from the world. What can you contribute?

You Don't Have to Fix the World - The world is not collapsing. It doesn't need you to fix it. Make your contribution.
I concur.

In the past fifteen or twenty years it seems like schools, in particular high schools, have sold two bills of goods.

"Follow your passion" is one of them. Sounds good but it only makes sense if you pair it with "and accept the consequences." I don't care what you are passionate about, I care what you can do and can do well. They might be the same thing; usually they aren't. I suspect that the imbibing of the "follow your passion" ethos has contributed to the widening perception that an emotional argument is just as valid as an evidence-based argument. "Because I care, it must be true" is the implied belief system. This is immensely destructive to good life outcomes.

I first noticed this perhaps fifteen years ago when resumes from recent college grads suddenly became studded with declarations of passion. "I am passionate about customer service", "I am passionate about solving problems", even such unlikely formulations as "I am passionate about accurate accounting." Fine and dandy but what are you actually good at?

The second bills of good is this notion that high school children not only can but are expected to "fix the world." Perhaps it is just the circles I run in but there is always someone's child who is raising money to start a foundation to address serious social issue X or starting a campaign to advocate for Y or in some other way making the world better. These are 12-18 year olds. They are good kids but they don't understand the world and they can't make a difference through their own actions. It is nice to encourage them to reach for the stars but let's not lie to them. And the cynic would cast a jaundiced eye at all these do good efforts and say that this is just class privilege trying to help their children signal to admissions offices.

Figure out how you can sustain yourself and those near and dear to you through the magic of the marketplace. If you are able to create goods and services that others desire, you are ipso facto making the world a better place one idea or a widget at a time. And if you are so good at it that you are able to amass millions, then by all means invest in initiatives that likely might make a difference. But don't expect to be able to do that with your own earned money when you are still a child or young adult.

Instead, go outside and play, spend time with friends, try and do things and build things, fail, fall down, get back up, stare at the sky, lie down in a meadow, watch the clouds flow by, read good books, play an instrument, push yourself, break an arm, gash your head or twist an ankle. Leave the solving of complex problems to the people who are actually living those problems. Don't colonize their lives with your good intentions.

Sunday, June 7, 2015

A crime occurs when someone feels a hurt triggered

From The Campus Crusaders by David Brooks.
These students are driven by noble impulses to do justice and identify oppression. They want to not only crack down on exploitation and discrimination, but also eradicate the cultural environment that tolerates these things. They want to police social norms so that hurtful comments are no longer tolerated and so that real bigotry is given no tacit support. Of course, at some level, they are right. Callous statements in the mainstream can lead to hostile behavior on the edge. That’s why we don’t tolerate Holocaust denial.

But when you witness how this movement is actually being felt on campus, you can’t help noticing that it sometimes slides into a form of zealotry. If you read the website of the group FIRE, which defends free speech on campus, if you read Kirsten Powers’s book, “The Silencing,” if you read Judith Shulevitz’s essay “In College and Hiding From Scary Ideas” that was published in The Times in Sunday Review on March 22, you come across tales of professors whose lives are ruined because they made innocent remarks; you see speech codes that inhibit free expression; you see reputations unfairly scarred by charges of racism and sexism.

The problem is that the campus activists have moral fervor, but don’t always have settled philosophies to restrain the fervor of their emotions. Settled philosophies are meant to (but obviously don’t always) instill a limiting sense of humility, a deference to the complexity and multifaceted nature of reality. But many of today’s activists are forced to rely on a relatively simple social theory.

According to this theory, the dividing lines between good and evil are starkly clear. The essential conflict is between the traumatized purity of the victim and the verbal violence of the oppressor.

According to this theory, the ultimate source of authority is not some hard-to-understand truth. It is everybody’s personal feelings. A crime occurs when someone feels a hurt triggered, or when someone feels disagreed with or “unsafe.” In the Shulevitz piece, a Brown student retreats from a campus debate to a safe room because she “was feeling bombarded by a lot of viewpoints that really go against” her dearly and closely held beliefs.

Today’s campus activists are not only going after actual acts of discrimination — which is admirable. They are also going after incorrect thought — impiety and blasphemy. They are going after people for simply failing to show sufficient deference to and respect for the etiquette they hold dear. They sometimes conflate ideas with actions and regard controversial ideas as forms of violence.
"Going after actual acts of discrimination." Would that they were. As far as I can tell, they are suppressing freedom of speech in pursuit of abstract, theoretical hurts. They want to control others, not in order to solve a problem but simply in order to exercise control. There is no problem solving and there are no solutions. Just a power grab. Whenever they come with an iconic face of a problem, such as Crystal Mangum, Emma Sulkowicz, "Jackie", etc. it turns out that there was no problem at all. There was a malicious lie.

When pressed for actuals cases where there was real discrimination or real injury, they either fail to deliver or they come up with cases that are already being addressed through the established system of laws and courts.

Brooks gives these people a pass by according them the cloak of good intentions. But if they were good people, they would care about the reality of their assumptions and the consequences of their actions. They don't. They are, broadly, unfeeling, totalitarian bigots.

Dick from the Internet

I know this guy. From Scott Adam's Dilbert.

Click to enlarge

Wealth is a behavior not a lottery

Paul Sullivan has an article, Millionaires Who Are Frugal When They Don’t Have to Be which echoes the earlier research of Thomas B. Stanley in his books The Millionaire Next Door and The Millionaire Mind.
The couple are the face of the self-made millionaire who has the financial security of true wealth, not the fleeting rush of sudden riches. While the popular perception of millionaires is that they are more ostentatious than frugal, recent research shows that single-digit millionaires, at least, are generally far more mindful about how they save, spend and invest their money.

“It’s about paying attention to what makes you happy and not just doing what our society tells us to do,” said Donna Skeels Cygan, a financial adviser in Albuquerque and the author of the book “The Joy of Financial Security.”

“They look upon money as a tool,” she said of couples like Ms. Marchi and Mr. Weidner, with whom she has worked. “It’s an important tool. They don’t neglect it, but they also don’t worship it.”

[snip]

I set out to talk to people who had what I considered an attainable level of wealth for people with well-paying jobs and the ability to control their spending and saving through their lifetime. They had wealth starting at several million dollars, but it did not stretch above the $10.86 million estate tax exemption level for couples.

(Once people’s wealth goes substantially past the estate tax exemption, they need tax and legal advisers for planning to minimize the estate tax. It’s a good problem to have, but it changes how they think about money.)

There were common threads in this group. These were people who had all made the money in their own lifetimes and done that as much by saving, investing and making careful choices about spending as by making large salaries.

One of the big choices was what they spent money on. A common thread was frugality about cars. Not only did they buy modestly priced vehicles, they kept them for a long time.

But fancy cars were more of a proxy for unnecessary purchases. Steve Ingram, a real estate and oil and gas lawyer in Albuquerque, said he and his wife simply didn’t care that much about material possessions.

“We have some nice things, but I drive a car for 10 years and then trade it in and get another car for 10 years,” he said. “We like to travel, and we’ll spend the money for that because it’s worth it having a real experience together.”
Among Stanley's many findings was that millionaires (net assets greater than a million dollars), particularly self made millionaires, were far more common than people perceived. Even relatively modest incomes, when combined with cautious investment decision making and with careful spending, can generate families with net assets greater than a million dollars.

More explicitly, status as a millionaire is a function of three elements 1) productivity (how much you earn), 2) saving (how much you control your spending) and 3) investment decision making.

For those obsessed with inequality, the tendency is to focus solely on the first issue and to ignore the other two. The fallacy in this blindness is evident when you consider concrete examples. The young single Harvard Law School grad, two or three years out may be earning an extravagant salary of $200,000 which way overshadows that his two friends from college who went straight into the workplace, one becoming a school teacher and the other a low level bank executive. Between them, they only earn $85,000, less than half what their lawyer friend is earning. Just with those three data points, you have evidence of the scope of income inequality.

But that's not the complete picture. The married couple earn a lot less but the have been earning a lot longer. The law school grad deferred income for three years while he completed his education. The average law school student graduates with an accumulated $150,000 in debt. So in the time that they earned $255,000, he went into the hole $150,000.

Even with his high pay since he graduated, he may still be worse off. Many professionals live to the maximum of their income. They spend whatever they earn. So our Harvard Law School grad may have taken a vacation to Europe upon graduation (to reward himself for his significant and hard earned accomplishment). He then leased a top end Mercedes as befitting his professional and social status. He rents a luxury apartment convenient to his work. He buys $1.000 suits and a Rolex as markers of his professional status. He's blowing through his income with no asset accumulation at all.

Meanwhile his friends from college are quietly eating in, vacationing nearby, and minding their pennies, spending no more than they need to. At this early point in their career, before children, they are socking away 50% of their income.

Six years after graduating college, our three friends have dramatically different income and wealth trajectories. Our young lawyer is living high on the hog with lots of consumption but zero savings or asset accumulation. He has high income and zero wealth.

Our married couple with the more mundane careers have (50% X $85,000 X 6) $255,000 already banked in savings as wealth. They are ready to buy a high almost debt free or make other careful investments that will make that money work for them.

The differences in wealth of a quarter of a million dollars are not a function of differing levels of productivity (income) but a product of differing behaviors regarding spending and risk managed investments.

Those seeking to redistribute wealth often fail to understand both how wealth is created and how their proposed redistributions will affect future wealth creation. Given that much of the most routine wealth accumulation occurs through tens of thousands of incremental decisions based on values and behaviors, they tend to be very sensitive to changes in the external circumstances.

For example, you can encourage people to become wealthier by encouraging them to become more productive such as through achieving higher levels of education (recognizing that only some forms of higher education actually lead to higher levels of productivity). You can encourage them to become wealthier by saving more. You can encourage them to become wealthier by investing more.

But one single action will have different degrees of influence given the three mechanisms. For example, some form of redistribution of wealth that takes from those that have and gives to those that have not, might have multiple consequences. If those with wealth have a higher propensity to save, then redistributing wealth to those without a propensity to save will reduce overall savings in the system and temporarily (until the transfer is exhausted) lead higher consumption. Those whose wealth was accumulated by low spending are likely to change their behaviors. If postponing consumption is not allowed to lead to wealth accumulation, then there is no reason to moderate consumption. If people are uncertain about the regulatory regime and the risk of future confiscation, then they are likely to switch their investments from lower risk long term investments to higher risk higher reward shorter term investments.

The upshot of all this is that both productivity and wealth accumulation are functions of complex systems of trade-offs between a variety of values and behaviors. It is fare easier to accidentally kill the goose that lays the golden eggs than it is to deliberately increase the production of golden egg laying.

Saturday, June 6, 2015

The barnacles don't care

I am introduced to the term of Trophic Cascades in this lovely video about the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park. I am familiar with the concept but not the term.


Click to enlarge.

I wonder if anyone has done any research on this concept in economic systems. I am not finding anything via Google. I cannot help but think of Mancur Olson and his argument in The Rise and Decline of Nations. His argument is that through rent seeking, free-riding, and regulatory capture, over time, complex but stable societies will experience economic stagnation owing to the accretion of groups seeking to leverage the coercive power of the state to foster non-communal interests. Big Labor, Big Business, Big Media, Big Oil, etc. Think of barnacles on a ship.

What all of these Bigs do is constrain choices, reduce freedom of action on the parts of individuals and most fundamentally reduce competition. They use regulations and the tax code and ordinances to reduce the freedom of individuals to benefit the limited interests of the Big advocates. This is on display right now in the City of Los Angeles where, under the guise of Social Justice and purported interest in the welfare of the poor, a mix of advocacy groups, including Big Labor, have just gotten the City Council to pass an ordinance raising the minimum wage to a "living wage" of $15.00 per hour. All sounds quite noble, right?

Ignore the forecast loss of jobs, closure of small businesses, etc. Pull back the curtain and look at the real motives on display. The ordinance is now passed. The first thing Big Labor is doing is to get its members exempted from the new minimum wage. Why on earth you ask? If businesses now face the choice of paying $15 an hour for unorganized labor versus, say, $10 an hour for unionized labor, for the first time, they have an incentive to bring in the unions. Employees in general suffer owing to decreased employment. Union members gain nothing (presuming their current minimum wage is below $15 an hour) and forgo an increase in income, but the Union leadership gains a powerful organizing tool. The Union (and its leadership) is the real winner by gaining more members and their dues. And what happens to the productivity of the economy, the welfare of the unemployed, the choices of consumers, etc.? The barnacles don't care.

So what I am wondering is whether the absence of competition is not analogous to the absence of wolves in an ecosystem.

By introducing freedom, choice and competition into a stagnant system befouled with barnacles and other sclerotic life forms, is that not an economic version of an ecological Trophic Cascade? For example, were the economic reforms of Deng Xiaoping essentially a form of Economic Trophic Cascade?

Friday, June 5, 2015

Learning by doing

Heh.

Click to enlarge.

How else are they going to learn without experience?