Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Rhetorical solutions for normative arguments

In an article on the usefulness to politicians of demonstrating (and evoking) anger, Megan McArdle makes this point.
We want simple narratives, ones with clear villains and heroes and an obvious moral. We want clear solutions that can be described in no more than one minute, just right for a sound bite on the evening news. We want someone to hate, along with the reassurance that once those people are removed or controlled, all will be right with the world. And we happily pull the lever in the ballot box for the people who will deliver these things.
Close, but I would change it just a bit.

When making a normative argument then you have to focus on:
Brevity

Simple Narratives

Evil villains to hate

Obvious applications of common knowledge

Easy solutions

No trade-offs or downsides

Concrete benefits

No hint of risk

No nuance or uncertainty

Obvious morals
Forget empirical evidence, causal explanations or the horrible experience of having to make trade-off decisions. Use the above techniques to rile your audience and motivate them to solve the problem you give them the way you want it solved. Consent of the governed, critical thinking, reasoned discourse, and subtle intelligence are unnecessary baggage to this type of politician.

Monday, March 9, 2015

Systemic dynamism

Fascinating. One's temporal frame of reference is squishy.

I attended Georgetown University in the early 1980's. At that time, Washington was 70% black and governed by Marion Barry whose career was marked by drugs and corruption allegations. D.C. was a basketcase propped up by huge subsidies from the federal government.

As a young and naive student, this simply seemed the way of the world and unlikely to change.

I just came across something I knew was in process but had not realized had now come to pass, A wave of mostly white voters is reshaping the politics of D.C. by Paul Schwartzman and Ted Mellnik. Schwartzman and Mellnik don't specify in their article but it appears from reports elsewhere as if Washington is now 45% black and 55% white and other.

As is often the case, I think the reporters are focusing on the wrong issue. It is not white and black. It is productive and nonproductive, it is employed versus dependent, it is professional versus dysfunctional. Sure there is a racial element, but that is not the underlying cause of these changes. The demographic changes in D.C. bode well for greater transparency, more citizen engagement, improved effectiveness, etc.

I have never seen a study demonstrating this, but have long believed, that the US usually misidentifies class issues as race issues. True for D.C. and for many other cities. Correspondingly, I have also long believed that the civic health of any entity is highly dependent on there being a healthy competitive political system with transparency and accountability. One party cities, counties and states, where there is little real competition, and therefore little real choice for the electorate, are always prone to rent seeking, regulatory capture and outright corruption.

Washington was not a basket case in the 1980s because it had an overwhelmingly black population. It was a basket case because it was dominated by a single political machine (in this case the Democrats) which had little transparency, accountability, or competition. It was a financial basket case because it had a low labor force participation rate, a low percentage of professionals, and a high population churn (no roots, no civic engagement).

Those things are changing. Local politics appear to be becoming competitive. More light appears to be being shone in murky corners. Everyone benefits.

All of which is a little off topic. What grabbed my attention initially is the simple dynamism of the US. In 1980 everything looked fixed and unchangeable. You can't capture all the nuances and subtleties in a single number, but the proxy of 70% black to 45% black in a mere 35 years serves to highlight the extent to which a long view facilitates recognizing how dynamic things are and that everything that appears mired and fixed in a static condition can really change quite quickly.

Shuns fancied Ills, or chases airy Good

From The Vanity of Human Wishes by Samuel Johnson. Opens with an admonition for better decision-making, though not in so many words.
Let Observation with extensive View,
Survey Mankind, from China to Peru;
Remark each anxious Toil, each eager Strife,
And watch the busy Scenes of crouded Life;
Then say how Hope and Fear, Desire and Hate,
O'er spread with Snares the clouded Maze of Fate,
Where wav'ring Man, betray'd by vent'rous Pride,
To tread the dreary Paths without a Guide;
As treach'rous Phantoms in the Mist delude,
Shuns fancied Ills, or chases airy Good.
How rarely Reason guides the stubborn Choice,
Rules the bold Hand, or prompts the suppliant Voice,
How Nations sink, by darling Schemes oppres'd,
When Vengeance listens to the Fool's Request.
Fate wings with ev'ry Wish th' afflictive Dart,
Each Gift of Nature, and each Grace of Art,
With fatal Heat impetuous Courage glows,
With fatal Sweetness Elocution flows,
Impeachment stops the Speaker's pow'rful Breath,
And restless Fire precipitates on Death.

"Shuns fancied Ills, or chases airy Good" sounds like much of our political discourse.

Forty Years On

Forty Years On from Wikipedia. The school anthem for Harrow.

Lyrics

Forty years on, when afar and asunder
Parted are those who are singing today,
When you look back, and forgetfully wonder
What you were like in your work and your play,
Then, it may be, there will often come o’er you,
Glimpses of notes like the catch of a song –
Visions of boyhood shall float them before you,
Echoes of dreamland shall bear them along,
Follow up! Follow up! Follow up
Follow up! Follow up

Till the field ring again and again,
With the tramp of the twenty-two men.
Follow up! Follow up!

Routs and discomfitures, rushes and rallies,
Bases attempted, and rescued, and won,
Strife without anger and art without malice, –
How will it seem to you, forty years on?
Then, you will say, not a feverish minute
Strained the weak heart and the wavering knee,
Never the battle raged hottest, but in it.
Neither the last nor the faintest, were we!
Follow up! etc....

Oh the great days. in the distance enchanted,
Days of fresh air, in the rain and the sun,
How we rejoiced as we struggled and panted –
Hardly believable, forty years on!
How we discoursed of them, one with another,
Auguring triumph, or balancing fate,
Loved the ally with the heart of a brother,
Hated the foe with a playing at hate!
Follow up etc.

Forty years on, growing older and older,
Shorter in wind, as in memory long,
Feeble of foot, and rheumatic of shoulder,
What will it help you that once you were strong?
God give us bases to guard or beleaguer,
Games to play out, whether earnest or fun;
Fights for the fearless, and goals for the eager,
Twenty, and thirty, and forty years on!
Follow up etc.

Churchill Verse:

Blazoned in honour! For each generation
You kindled courage to stand and to stay;
You led our fathers to fight for the nation,
Called "Follow up" and yourself showed the way.
We who were born in the calm after thunder
Cherish our freedom to think and to do;
If in our turn we forgetfully wonder,
Yet we'll remember we owe it to you.
Follow up! etc.

The original Churchill verse, sung to him on 12 November 1954, was as follows:

Sixty years on—though in time growing older,
Younger at heart you return to the Hill:
You, who in days of defeat ever bolder,
Led us to Victory, serve Britain still.
Still there are bases to guard or beleaguer,
Still must the battle for Freedom be won:
Long may you fight, Sir, who fearless and eager
Look back to-day more than sixty years on

Sunday, March 8, 2015

Ideology delays and exacerbates the day of reckoning

A rather overstretched argument in The Trap of Minority Studies Programs by John Ellis, but with a core truth.

Ellis argues that Universities side-track students, particularly minority students, away from a real education and instead channel them to non-productive, and in fact, destructive degrees which fail the student but serve the grander objectives of the faculty and administration.
In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, large populations of poor immigrants arrived in the U.S.–Irish, Italians, and Jews from Russia and Poland. Their extreme poverty placed them at the bottom of the social ladder, and they were often treated with contempt. Yet just a few generations later they were assimilated, and their rapid upward social mobility had produced mayors, senators, judges, and even Presidents from among their ranks. None of this could have happened without first-rate public education.

To be sure, they worked hard to get ahead, but they were not obstructed by something that afflicts the have-nots of today: as they walked through the school gates they were not met by people intent on luring them into Irish or Italian Studies programs whose purpose was to keep them in a state of permanent resentment over past wrongs at the hands of either Europeans or establishment America. Instead, they could give their full attention to learning. They took courses that informed them about their new land’s folkways and history, which gave them both the ability and the confidence needed to grasp the opportunities it offered them.

When we compare this story with what is happening to minority students today, we see a tragedy. Just as Pinocchio went off to school with high hopes, only to be waylaid by J. Worthington Foulfellow, minority students are met on the way to campus by hard-left radicals who claim to have the interests of the newcomers at heart but in reality prey on them to advance their own selfish interests. Of course, what black students need is the same solid traditional education that had raised Irish, Italians, and Jews to full equality. But that would not serve the campus radicals’ purpose. Disaffected radicals wanted to swell the ranks of the disaffected, not the ranks of the cheerfully upward mobile. Genuine progress for minority students would mean their joining and thus strengthening the mainstream of American society–the mainstream that campus radicals loathe.

[snip]

As thinkers, campus radicals are poor role models for students. Their ideas are simple and rigid, and they rely heavily on conspiracy thinking that infers far too much from too little. They are powered by emotional commitments that are highly resistant to the lessons of experience. As a result, their cherished ideas are now virtually obsolete, and strike any reasonably well-informed observer as downright silly. The minority students that they attract into their orbit are dragged down to this low intellectual level.

This background is the key to the fury that Naomi Schaefer Riley¹s criticisms of Black Studies dissertations unleashed. Radical leftists have achieved considerable influence on campus in part because they were able to add substantial numbers of incoming minorities to their numbers. They need those students in self-destructive Black Studies courses that keep them resentful and under-educated. But that is only possible if they can maintain the illusion that they help and support black students, rather than exploiting them. Ms Schaefer Riley was a threat to that illusion, and that is why she was attacked so vehemently.
Like I say, a little overdrawn as an argument.

But there is a gem in the mud. I think there are five bad consequences arising from the various Studies programs but the degrees of badness are not the same. I might argue that in ascending order of badness, Studies programs are responsible for 1) Ignorance, 2) Misunderstanding, 3) Anger, 4) Helplessness, and 5) Isolation. I view Isolation as the most egregious consequence.

Ignorance - Time spent studying the detail of out-of-the-mainstream and largely abandoned ideologies of grievance (postcolonialism, postmodernism, poststructuralism) displaces time spent on the broader sweep of history, literature, arts, sciences, etc. This is both bad and sad but not uncommon. The difference is that the displacement yields little in terms of productivity. An electrical engineer, a sciences major, an economics major also have large portfolios of knowledge that they have to acquire which in effect marginalize the amount of time they are able to dedicate to the classical humanities which provide a context for their specialized knowledge. The benefit, though, is that they emerge from university with a degree that is in demand and which allows them to be productive in a fashion that then allows them later to acquire the broader range of knowledge which they missed out on.

Misunderstanding - Everyone is to some degree ignorant, no one is omniscient. But some fields of knowledge cultivate an inquiring mind, critical thinking and a habit of openness combined with skepticism. In all the sciences and to some degree the harder humanities (such as economics) there is both a portfolio of knowledge to be acquired but there are also laws to be mastered. It is not enough to know that X is true but you have to be able to show why and under what conditions X is true. It is not enough to know that supply and demand determine price. You have to master the conditions under which that is true, why there are occasional exceptions, and the mechanisms by which supply and demand move the price. In contrast, many or most of the fields of grievance studies depend to a far greater degree on rhetoric and conviction than on skeptical enquiry and empirical evidence. It is enough to parrot the right words arising from belief without having to prove anything. Not only does the student lose by failing to acquire useful knowledge but more importantly the student also loses from failing to cultivate habits of critical thinking, inquiry, and skepticism. Even when provided evidence that contradict their beliefs, they are unable to process that information, thereby failing to adapt to a real world that does not match the abstract theoretical world in which they have been shaped.

Anger - This is a two sided outcome. Grievance studies are intended to convince their students of the legitimacy of their grievances and more than that to be sufficiently stirred to take action on those beliefs. It is broadly true that it is insufficient to have knowledge and to be skilled in alacritous thinking. Those are a great foundation but ultimately, there is only value if you deploy that knowledge and that skilled thinking to useful purpose. You have to be stirred to action. It is broadly better when the motif force is love or conscientiousness or respect or some other noble sentiment. But anger will do in a pinch. The problem for the students in grievance studies is that their motif force is almost always negative: envy or anger or jealousy or resentment. The negative motive is then compounded by being directed in a false or non-productive direction (arising from ignorance and misunderstanding).

Helplessness - Oddly in combination with the incitement to anger. In virtually all these grievance programs, there is a strong element that current status is a function solely of external conditions and malevolent actions of others and not at all a consequence of individual chosen actions and behaviors. In a world where everything is a consequence of impersonal forces and where the individual has no traction, there is a tendency towards fatalism and defeatism. Why bother when all is preordained? Of course that is not the reality at all. Individuals do make a difference, individual choices do have consequences. To the extent that you accept the doctrine of helplessness, your life circumstances will not improve at all and are likely to decline.

Isolation - I think this is the most egregious and difficult to overcome consequence of the grievance studies programs. Like a cult, you are lured in and then isolated from anything that contradicts the received wisdom. Not only do you lose knowledge, understanding and positive motivation but you lose the capacity to acquire those things as long as you remain hostage in epistemological isolation. Openness, transparency, skepticism, inquiry, agency, consequentiality, engagement all combined create a turbulent but ultimately self-correcting process for knowledge acquisition and refinement. Isolation and protection accomplish the reverse.

As an example of the counterproductiveness of this isolation, see the responses quoted in Ferguson Report Puts ‘Hands Up’ to Reality Test by Jack Healy, Sheryl Gay Stolberg, and Vivian Yee.
Others rejected the Justice Department’s conclusions entirely, and said they still believed Mr. Brown was trying to surrender when he was killed.

They said they did not trust an earlier state grand jury process that had cleared Mr. Wilson, who left the Ferguson police force late last year, of state criminal charges in November, and had no faith in the federal investigation or the high bar set to find a law enforcement officer responsible for civil rights violations.

African-American congressmen and congressional staff members on the steps of the Capitol in December. Credit Gary Cameron/Reuters
“To me, he had his hands up,” said Michael T. McPhearson, co-chairman of the Don’t Shoot Coalition in St. Louis. “It doesn’t change it for me.”
In this world of grievance, it doesn't matter what the facts are, belief trumps everything, particularly belief in victimhood. This belief system blinds the angry advocates both from recognition of the real problem and real solutions that might dramatically improve everyone's circumstances. Ferguson is not a product of racism but of dysfunctional governance with a predatory system of funding through the legal system which disproportionately disadvantages the poor (who are disproportionately black).

Accepting the grievance studies program's interpretation that this is all a function of overt and covert racism on the part of the city council and the police department, all you have to do is replace white leaders and officers with black leaders and officers. We have more than enough empirical evidence to demonstrate that this will not solve the problem but will make it worse (lesser transparency and capacity to criticize.)

A classical liberal with an open, skeptical, inquiring mind not hampered by the victim lenses, would look at the Ferguson situation and identify changes in governance structure (likely mergers with comparable entities to achieve critical mass) and changes in government funding as the means to improve the quality of life of the residents. Ferguson is the product of long postponed fundamental changes made necessary by changing demographics, economy, technology, etc. What worked in the past clearly is not working today. No one will like higher property taxes but that has to be the first necessary step to move away from a predatory judicial system. The fact that no one wants higher property taxes likely means that the residents of Ferguson will have to choose either lower services or will have to merge with another municipality to achieve critical mass for service provision. That might not be the choice people want, but that is what they face and no amount of diversity training, affirmative action hires, gerrymandering or other nonproductive strategies will change that. It will just postpone the day of reckoning with reality.

Political correctness, post-modernism, cultural relativism, and hypersensitivities preclude decision making

I enjoyed this. Religion’s Role in the History of Ideas by Michael Roth.

I wonder if today, in our oppressive school environment where so much time is spent in sealing off things from discussion, cultivating the idea that all cultures and beliefs are equally to be respected, the pernicious ideas behind self-esteem (it doesn't matter what is real, it matters how you feel), etc., whether we haven't essentially created an intellectual environment which precludes imagination, critical-thinking, and judgment. I wonder if our school culture hasn't become one that punishes those who reach a distinct opinion based on reason and evidence, if that opinion is outside the narrow bounds of received wisdom. If, in the pursuit of diversity, we haven't simply cultivated a different version of conformity.
It happens every year. In teaching my humanities class, I ask what a philosopher had in mind in writing about the immortality of the soul or salvation, and suddenly my normally loquacious undergraduates start staring down intently at their notes. If I ask them a factual theological question about the Protestant Reformation, they are ready with an answer: predestination, faith not works, etc.

But if I go on to ask them how one knows in one’s heart that one is saved, they turn back to their notes. They look anywhere but at me, for fear that I might ask them about feeling the love of God or about having a heart filled with faith. In this intellectual history class, we talk about sexuality and identity, violence and revolution, art and obscenity, and the students are generally eager to weigh in. But when the topic of religious feeling and experience comes up, they would obviously just prefer that I move on to another subject.

Why is it so hard for my very smart students to make this leap—not the leap of faith but the leap of historical imagination? I’m not trying to make a religious believer out of anybody, but I do want my students to have a nuanced sense of how ideas of knowledge, politics and ethics have been intertwined with religious faith and practice.

Given my reading list, I often ask these questions about Christian traditions, inviting students to step into the shoes of thinkers who were trying to walk with Jesus. I realize that more than a few of my undergraduates are Christians who might readily speak to this experience in another setting. But in the classroom, they are uncomfortable speaking out. So I carry on awkwardly as best I can: a secular Jew trying to get his students to empathize with Christian sensibilities.

[snip]

The classroom is another kind of participation. As a historian, I want my students to learn concrete things about major events and daily life in the past, but I also want them to go beyond the facts and try to imagine how it felt to be at a certain time and place; I want them to participate imaginatively in the past while recognizing that this creative act can never be accomplished fully. When we read great books together, I want them to understand why an author made certain choices, how the arguments were first received and how they might be relevant to us today.

When we exercise historical imagination about secular topics, we have an easier time accepting the possibility that we might be wrong, that new evidence might change our minds. Religious questions seem to cut more deeply, arousing…well, some fear and trembling.
What if it is not religion that causes the fear and trembling, but the call to make a decision and defend that decision within the constraints of political correctness, post-modernism, cultural relativism, and hypersensitivities.

Between his lordly appetites and her queenly prerogatives

I am not wild about Maureen Dowd as a columnist but I keep her on my check in list. There are a number of writers who I think too often bark up the wrong tree but who are none-the-less still engaging writers. It is worth checking in on them 1) to check your own perspective and challenge your own assumptions and 2) they occasionally have a good turn of phrase.

Such is the case with Dowd today, discussing the most recent in the legion scandals and controversies surrounding Bill and Hillary Clinton. Dowd has an excellent two sentence summary encompassing both cause and effect.
The Clintons don’t sparkle with honesty and openness. Between his lordly appetites and her queenly prerogatives, you always feel as if there’s something afoot.

Saturday, March 7, 2015

Cognitive pollution with real world consequences

Silicone On Trial: Bastardization Of Justice by Josh Bloom is a book review covering the great Silicone Implant fraud/scandal.

It is a familiar story of public hysteria, advocacy, weak science, unconstrained and irresponsible regulatory overreach, and a manipulated criminal system. The core issue was allegations that silicone implants caused cancer. This allegation was refuted multiple times over many years and yet a major corporation was bankrupted, people lost their jobs, and billions of dollars were paid to lawyers and "victims" when in fact, there were no victims.

I refer to cognitive pollution as those situations where something is passionately believed to be true even though there is little empirical evidence to support its truth, much to refute it, or it is true only in very narrow circumstances.

Top of mind, I can think of half a dozen or so examples where dramatic action has been taken with little understanding of the empirical reality of the perceived problem or the likely consequences of the imposed solution. In all these cases, it has turned out that the problem did not exist in the form thought. In a couple of cases the evidence is still unresolved. In others, it is clear and counter that of the advocates. In yet others, there was no evidence but there weren't a lot of consequences.
Affirmative Action in the 1970s (continuing)
Satan and Day Care Centers in the 1980s
Silicone implants and cancer in the 1990s
Anthropogenic Global Warming in the 1990s (continuing)
Cellphones and cancer in the 2000s
Anti-Vaccination paranoia of the 2000s (continuing)
War on Women and Campus Rape Crisis of the 2010s
I suspect we will ultimately find that the issue of Global Warming is dramatically different than has been presented to date.

We are a long way from evidence-based decision making and while the consequences aren't always catastrophic when we go with our emotions, too often they are.


Friday, March 6, 2015

Authorial significance: quoting versus reading

I just posted There is always another one walking beside you. Considering Eliot, it sparked a thought. Is there some sort of index that measures how much an author is read versus how much an author is quoted?

For example, I have read perhaps a dozen Shakespeare plays but only Julius Caesar and Macbeth have I read multiple times (let's say four times each) and have also seen movie and play versions and listened to in audio form. I quote Shakespeare perhaps a dozen times a year, half being Julius Caesar and Macbeth quotes and half being from other plays, including ones I have never read.

Over forty years then:
10 plays read once each
2 plays read four times each
480 times quoted Shakespeare
From a personal perspective, I would say that the two plays I have read multiple times have had a real, though probably unmeasurable impact on me, forcing me to think through concepts and ideas such as fate and friendship, free will and destiny, art and action, etc. I would guess that the other ten plays may have had some unconscious impact, but I can't say what that might have been.

From a societal perspective, my use of Shakespeare quotes helps both convey general hand-me-down cultural wisdom and raises the probability, in some small amount, of the survival and circulation of the works of Shakespeare.

What set this train of thought in motion is that reference to ELiot. I have never read Waste Land in its entirety though I occasionally quote passages from it. I think I have read all of Old Possum's Book of Practical Cats but I only occasionally quote from it. I am pretty certain there are few or no other Eliot works I have read in toto. In contrast to Shakespeare, I quote Eliot to a much greater extent than I have read him.

Not sure where I am headed with this other than a sense that there are some authors whose wisdom gets much more tightly bound up into a culture than the actual reading of their works might otherwise indicate. Just taking some Eliot quotes at random, I think most college educated people would either recognize or have a vague familiarity with a good portion of these, even though only a vanishingly small number would have read any of them:
“For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice.
And to make an end is to make a beginning."
- Little Gidding by T.S. Eliot

“To do the useful thing, to say the courageous thing, to contemplate the beautiful thing: that is enough for one man's life.”
― T.S. Eliot, The Use of Poetry and the Use of Criticism

“Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.”
― T.S. Eliot

“This is the way the world ends
Not with a bang but a whimper.”
― T.S. Eliot, Hollow Men

“We shall not cease from exploration
And the end of all our exploring
Will be to arrive where we started
And know the place for the first time.”
― T.S. Eliot, Four Quartets

“Sometimes things become possible if we want them bad enough.”
― T.S. Eliot

“April is the cruelest month, breeding
lilacs out of the dead land, mixing
memory and desire, stirring
dull roots with spring rain.”
― T.S. Eliot, The Waste Land

“For I have known them all already, known them all—
Have known the evenings, mornings, afternoons,
I have measured out my life with coffee spoons.”
― T.S. Eliot, The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock and Others

“The very existence of libraries affords the best evidence that we may yet have hope for the future of man”
― T.S. Eliot

“Most of the evil in this world is done by people with good intentions.”
― T.S. Eliot

“You are the music while the music lasts.”
― T.S. Eliot, Four Quartets

“Humankind cannot bear very much reality.”
― T.S. Eliot, Four Quartets

“Time for you and time for me,
And time yet for a hundred indecisions,
And for a hundred visions and revisions,
Before the taking of a toast and tea.”
― T.S. Eliot, The Love Song of J. Alfred Prufrock

“If you haven’t the strength to impose your own terms upon life, then you must accept the terms it offers you.”
― T.S. Eliot

“Between the idea
And the reality
Between the motion
And the act
Falls the Shadow”
― The Hollow Men by T.S. Eliot, Poems: 1909-1925

There is always another one walking beside you

I enjoy discovering backstories to literature.

From The strange world of felt presences by Ben Alderson-Day and David Smailes.
On 20 May 1916, Ernest Shackleton, Frank Worsley, and Tom Crean reached Stromness, a whaling station on the north coast of South Georgia. They had been walking for 36 hours, in life-threatening conditions, in an attempt to reach help for the rest of their party: three of their crew were stuck on the south side of the island, with the remainder stranded on Elephant Island. To reach the whaling station, the three men had to cross the island’s mountainous interior with just a rope and an axe, in a journey that few had attempted before or since. By reaching Stromness they managed to save all the men left from the ill-fated Imperial Transantarctic Expedition.

They did not talk about it at the time, but weeks later all three men reported an uncanny experience during their trek: a feeling that “often there were four, not three” men on their journey. The “fourth” that accompanied them had the silent presence of a real person, someone walking with them by their side, as far as the whaling station but no further. Shackleton was apparently deeply affected by the experience, but would say little about it in subsequent years, considering it something “which can never be spoken of”.

Encounters such as these are common in extreme survival situations: guardian angels, guides, or even Christ-like figures have often been reported. We know them now as “third man” experiences, following a line in TS Eliot’s poem, The Wasteland:

“Who is the third who walks always beside you? When I count, there are only you and I together. But when I look ahead up the white road, there is always another one walking beside you”

Eliot had heard of Shackleton’s encounter, but could not remember the precise details – meaning that the “fourth” man became the “third”.