Tuesday, July 8, 2014

The astral discontent with actual lives

From The Women's Movement by Joan Didion, July 30, 1972.
The half-truths, repeated, authenticated themselves.
Lots of interesting lines and contemporary argument that is now, paradoxically, forty some years old. Didion is direct.
Eternal love, romance, fun. The Big Apple. These are relatively rare expectations in the arrangements of consenting adults, although not in those of children, and it wrenches the heart to read about these women in their brave new lives. An ex-wife and mother of three speaks of her plan "to play out my college girl's dream. I am going to New York to become this famous writer. Or this working writer. Failing that, I will get a job in publishing." She mentions a friend, another young woman who "had never had any other life than as a daughter or wife or mother" but who is "just discovering herself to be a gifted potter." The childlike resourcefulness-to get a job in publishing, to be a gifted potter-bewilders the imagination. The astral discontent with actual lives, actual men, the denial of the real ambiguities and the real generative or malignant possibilities of adult sexual life, somehow touches beyond words.

"It is the right of the oppressed to organize around their oppression as they see and define it," the movement theorists insist doggedly in an effort to solve the question of these women, to convince themselves that what is going on is still a political process; but the handwriting is already on the wall. These are converts who want not a revolution but "romance," who believe not in the oppression of women but in their own chances for a new life in exactly the mold of their old life. In certain ways they tell us sadder things about what the culture has done to them than the theorists did, and they also tell us, I suspect, that the women's movement is no longer a cause but a symptom.

Monday, July 7, 2014

Even economists have good jokes

From Do Cities Really Want Economic Development? by Aaron M. Renn. An excellent articulation of revealed preference.
Economist David Friedman once told this joke: “Two economists walk past a Porsche showroom. One of them points at a shiny car in the window and says, ‘I want that.’ ‘Obviously not,’ the other replies.”

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Guns and Cars and Consent and Powers Not Delegated

From The End of the Affair by P.J. O’Rourke.
But cars didn’t shape our existence; cars let us escape with our lives. We’re way the heck out here in Valley Bottom Heights and Trout Antler Estates because we were at war with the cities. We fought rotten public schools, idiot municipal bureaucracies, corrupt political machines, rampant criminality and the pointy-headed busybodies. Cars gave us our dragoons and hussars, lent us speed and mobility, let us scout the terrain and probe the enemy’s lines. And thanks to our cars, when we lost the cities we weren’t forced to surrender, we were able to retreat.
I am inclined to think that this observation is linked to the observation that "The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe" (Jean-François Revel). Perhaps it falls where it does because people in Europe (and elsewhere) have not been granted access to cars by the regulators to the degree we have in the US. And that hinges on one of the critical differences between exceptional America and the rest of the world. Elsewhere, power is exercised by some cabal of centralized authority and freedoms dispensed to the individual citizens as necessary or convenient. In America, and it is an orientation always under threat, the whole culture and system of government is predicated on the unique power and authority of the individual as articulated in the Declaration of Independence:
That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed.
and reaffirmed in the Constitution with an explicit acknowledgement (in the Tenth Amendment) that
The powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.
The Second Amendment (right to bear arms) and the unanticipated automobile are powerful buttresses to the principle that government is at the service of the governed and only so empowered as the governed consent.

All decisions are trade-offs. Having lived much of my childhood in Europe, I was accustomed to the regulations and restrictions there. When I came back to America at the age of sixteen I was both puzzled by the fascination with guns and appalled by the costs in terms of lives of both cars (34,000 lives lost in accidents per year) and guns (11,000 lives lost through murder with a gun per year). But if that is the cost, what is being purchased? I suspect that this is one of those tactical and strategic equations. Tactical costs for strategic advantages. The European desire to reduce tactical costs may be partially behind their exposure to much greater strategic costs.

To set those costs in the balance of the sorts of totalitarianism (dark nights of fascism) which have so frequently engulfed Europe in the 20th century is the sort of Jesuitical calculation that can have no real answer. We know the costs of the Maos (40-70,000,000), the Stalins (15-20,000,000), the Hitlers (11,000,000), and the Japanese military Junta in WWII (3-10,000,000). And those are just the big numbers.

I do suspect that the freedom of movement and transportation as represented by the car and the autonomy represented by guns are in some ways real constraints on such perennial inclinations towards totalitarianism as is so much in evidence elsewhere.

Currently reading Reflections on a Ravaged Century by Robert Conquest which has some echoing themes.

Friday, July 4, 2014

Oh! thus be it ever, when freemen shall stand


Back from a week at Philmont, the Boy Scout camp in New Mexico. During the week, there was an event when some four hundred participants, scouts and scoutmasters, sang the national anthem. Always inspiring; people of all ages, races, creeds, religions, class, regions of the country, singing ability, etc. in one common aspirational song. E pluribus unum indeed.
The Star Spangled Banner Lyrics
by Francis Scott Key, 1814

Oh, say can you see by the dawn's early light
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming?
Whose broad stripes and bright stars thru the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watched were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there.
Oh, say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?

On the shore, dimly seen through the mists of the deep,
Where the foe's haughty host in dread silence reposes,
What is that which the breeze, o'er the towering steep,
As it fitfully blows, half conceals, half discloses?
Now it catches the gleam of the morning's first beam,
In full glory reflected now shines in the stream:
'Tis the star-spangled banner! Oh long may it wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

And where is that band who so vauntingly swore
That the havoc of war and the battle's confusion,
A home and a country should leave us no more!
Their blood has washed out their foul footsteps' pollution.
No refuge could save the hireling and slave
From the terror of flight, or the gloom of the grave:
And the star-spangled banner in triumph doth wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!

Oh! thus be it ever, when freemen shall stand
Between their loved home and the war's desolation!
Blest with victory and peace, may the heav'n rescued land
Praise the Power that hath made and preserved us a nation.
Then conquer we must, when our cause it is just,
And this be our motto: "In God is our trust."
And the star-spangled banner in triumph shall wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave!
A good account of the War of 1812 is that by Walter Lord, The Dawn's Early Light.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

This is — and I can’t stress this enough — total poppycock


A kind of needlessly combative article but one which makes a critical point. Race awareness advocates tend to lose perspective, seem to lack awareness of context and almost never wish to engage with the trade-off implications that arise from their recommended solutions. From Cognitive Dissonance and Tech ‘Diversity’ by Sonny Bunch.

Bunch is reporting on an analysis of the ethnicity of Yahoo's workforce. The results of that analysis are here.


The original report in CNET by Richard Nieva, to which Brunch takes exception, states that
Yahoo on Tuesday released statistics about its workforce, and the employee makeup is — like many of the other tech firms that have disclosed data — mostly male and mostly white.
Brunch is outraged that this is misleading and that just how misleading can be confirmed simply by looking at the above graphic accompanying the report. It is not as if the author and magazine are even trying to make it hard to catch them out.
And it’s remarkably misleading, at least when it comes to race. (Sex is another matter, though I’m shocked, shocked that tech firms are mostly dudes.)

[snip]

Yahoo’s workforce is half-white. That’s not “mostly,” unless you take “mostly” to mean “the highest single percentage.”* But that’s a semantic point: the headline/lede are misleading because they want you to think that Yahoo has an abnormally or disproportionately high number of white employees. This is—and I can’t stress this enough—total poppycock. Indeed, if we look at the population as a whole, whites are actually underrepresented at Yahoo. Massively so. Non-hispanic whites make up 63 percent of the American population, well more than the 50 percent at Yahoo. Asians, meanwhile, make up about five percent of the general population but 39 percent of Yahoo’s workforce.
Brunch is too charitable. This is a classic example of ideology driven reporting. The ideology is that there is a massive and systemic discrimination by white males in Silicon Valley against women and minorities and these figures are offered up, out of context, to prove that belief.

But is that what the chart reveals? Of course not.

It shows that there are about as many women working at Yahoo as there are in the overall labor force. Yahoo's global workforce is 37% female. In the OECD females constitute close to 44% of the labor force. So women are slightly underrepresented at Yahoo than a simple comparison to the OECD would indicate, even without taking into account the actual countries in which Yahoo operates and what their actual female labor force participation rates might be.

The apparent moderate dearth of women in this technology company is likely explained by the fact that it is a technology company. Women earn approximately 17% of technology degrees (computer science and engineering) and they are 15% of Yahoo's tech employees, so no obvious cause for alarm there. If women are underrepresented in Yahoo's main field of endeavor (technology) in which most of their employees are involved, then obviously, the female percentage of the overall company is going to be low.

Similarly, Yahoo has 23% of their executive leadership being female. I don't know what it is in the high technology field but in most professions and fields of endeavor, (law, accounting, medicine, consulting, writing, music, etc.) women are between 15-30% of the top tier performers. So again, Yahoo doesn't appear out of line with what you would expect.

So on the gender side of things, there is no there there, despite what Neiva might be trying to imply.

Likewise, and more egregiously, on the ethnicity side of things. This is what really sends Bunch over the wall.

Yahoo is 50% white (in the US) whereas non-Hispanic whites are 63% of the population. Asians are 39% of Yahoo's employee base but only 5% of the US population.

So Neiva and CNET are trying to tell a story of a majority male, majority white company discriminating against women and non-whites when in fact the numbers with which they are working indicate that Yahoo pretty much has the employee gender breakdown you would expect in a country where relatively few women choose to take technology degrees.

Just as bad or worse, Neiva and CNET try to make a case for racial discrimination where there is no case to be made. They mangle the language to make 50% mean the majority, omit the fact that 50% of the employee base being white is well below the 63% you would expect.

If there is no male misogyny and no white racial discrimination, then who exactly are the racial bad guys? According to Neiva and CNET, its those Asians who are taking all the technology jobs from whites, blacks and Hispanics.

The vileness of the racial mindset and ideology are on full display.

And the absurdity and mindless maliciousness. Implied in the headline is that there are too many white employees. The implication is that this is a problem. Naturally the intended inference is that whites should be fired and replaced by blacks and Hispanics to make Yahoo statistically representative of the population at large. The racism underpinning that proposition only becomes readily apparent when you deal with the numbers as they are rather than the numbers as Neiva and CNET wish them to be.

If blacks, whites, and Hispanics are underrepresented, as they clearly are, are CNET and Neiva equally willing to make the recommendation that Yahoo fire Asian employees to beef up the white, black and Hispanic numbers?

And if they are not, and I believe they should not make such a racist recommendation, then why is it appropriate to do so when they thought it was whites that were going to suffer the loss of jobs?

Aggh! Just trying to follow their mental gymnastics leaves me feeling polluted.

Monday, June 30, 2014

Its poor record on keeping people alive


From NHS is the world's best healthcare system, report says by Denis Campbell and Nicholas Watt.
In the Commonwealth Fund study the UK came first out of the 11 countries in eight of the 11 measures of care the authors looked at. It got top place on measures including providing effective care, safe care, co-ordinated care and patient-centred care. The fund also rated the NHS as the best for giving access to care and for efficient use of resources.
Sounds good? But, wait, that's not all.
The only serious black mark against the NHS was its poor record on keeping people alive.
Well, yeah, other than that. And how bad is it doing at keeping people alive?
On a composite "healthy lives" score, which includes deaths among infants and patients who would have survived had they received timely and effective healthcare, the UK came 10th.
That's 10th out of 11.

To be fair to the NHS, health system comparisons within countries are notoriously difficult let alone between countries. In addition, most these type of reports are written by industry insiders with some sort of policy axe to grind and budgets to be enhanced.

So the real issue is perhaps with the report writers (and the media reporting it) rather than the NHS. What kind of sane health system looks so bureaucratically good but allows its patients to die at greater rates than just about everyone else. Something is amiss and it may or may not be the NHS.



Sunday, June 29, 2014

Considering these events in isolation can lead to policies that are far from optimal


An interesting issue which is too rarely engaged with and an interesting discussion. How much risk mitigation can we afford? From How many catastrophes can we avert? by Tyler Cowen. from the originally cited paper.
How should we evaluate public policies or projects to avert or reduce the likelihood of a catastrophic event? Examples might include a greenhouse gas abatement policy to avert a climate change catastrophe, investments in vaccine technologies that would help respond to a “mega-virus,” or the construction of levees to avert major flooding. A policy to avert a particular catastrophe considered in isolation might be evaluated in a cost-bene fit framework. But because society faces multiple potential catastrophes, simple cost-bene fit analysis breaks down: Even if the benefi t of averting each one exceeds the cost, we should not avert all of them. We explore the policy interdependence of catastrophic events, and show that considering these events in isolation can lead to policies that are far from optimal. We develop a rule for determining which events should be averted and which should not.
Risk identification, risk quantification, uncertainty, risk mitigation, present vs. future trade-offs, consumption vs. investment trade-offs, tactical vs. strategic trade-offs. It's all there, bundled up.

There has been, among advocacy groups, an orientation towards the precautionary principle, a quite flawed risk approach, over the past couple of decades. While at its heart, there is a commonsense nugget that you shouldn't do anything rash and without some degree of confidence on the outcomes, it is in practice a disgraceful exercise in reductio ad absurdum whereby no action can take place without the authorization of some preferred group, just in case the action might have an unanticipated negative consequence.

Cowen's post and the original work begin to map some of the boundaries to how one can and ought to make communal risk/uncertainty decisions. Only so much of a society's surplus can be diverted into crony capitalism, non-productive consumption, and moral hazard before the productivity of the system is undermined. So how do you assess real but remote events that have large magnitude consequences. How do you make trade-off decisions?

These are the sorts of issues that Nassim Nicholas Taleb is wrestling with in Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Part of his answer is that there are some events that you cannot actually plan for, all you can do is prepare your system in such a way that if the highly unlikely event does occur, you can recover as painlessly as possible.

Saturday, June 28, 2014

Silent, upon a peak in Darien


On first looking into Chapman's Homer
by John Keats

Much have I travell'd in the realms of gold,
And many goodly states and kingdoms seen;
Round many western islands have I been
Which bards in fealty to Apollo hold.

Oft of one wide expanse had I been told
That deep-brow'd Homer ruled as his demesne:
Yet did I never breathe its pure serene
Till I heard Chapman speak out loud and bold:

Then felt I like some watcher of the skies
When a new planet swims into his ken;
Or like stout Cortez, when with eagle eyes
He stared at the Pacific—and all his men
Look'd at each other with a wild surmise—
Silent, upon a peak in Darien.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Fiction and Nonfiction, boys and girls


From a recent discussion about fiction and nonfiction and the stereotypes of gendered reading. Here is some information that was collected and shared.

Because we define terms and concepts differently (ex. Are YA books the books that young adults read or are they a marketing category of literary fiction we choose to call YA?) we often end up talking at cross-purposes. When we speak about reading are we including books and non-books (magazines, newspapers, comics, text messages)? When we talk about reading are we talking about voluntary elective reading or are we including reading related to work and study? Regrettably these distinctions are important and either are elided or not addressed in a lot of studies.

For example, there is the stereotype that boys don’t read and when they do read, they primarily prefer nonfiction. Almost as a derivative of this first stereotype, there is then also the corollary stereotype that girls don’t read nonfiction.

Both of these are true with very particular definitions and wrong when loosely stated.

While relying primarily on US data, I have included data from a couple of robust recent studies from the UK and Australia. Their reading patterns at the macro level are close to those in the US and there is granular detail in those recent studies that is likely reflective of the US as well (or is consistent with smaller, less robust studies from the US)

Summary: Boys read less than girls, starting roughly equal in grade school and the gap widening through adulthood. Boys that read only one or the other, read about as much fiction as nonfiction but girls read a good deal more fiction than nonfiction. The plurality/near majority of both girls and boys read both fiction and nonfiction. Girls tend to be more catholic in the range of their reading (by f/nf as well as by subject, protagonist, etc.) Boys demonstrate a significant focus in their preferences. While boys and girls have a majority overlap in the titles they elect to read, the overlap is largest in K and least in 12th grade. The books that they elect to read that do not overlap conform to traditional stereotypes with boys preferring adventure/action and girls preferring relationships/romance.

Stipulated that anybody can read anything they wish and that there is no normative basis for prescribing what people ought to be reading. Any and all recommendations to a young reader are ideally based on a deep knowledge of the child’s reading ability, context, and interests.


Do males read less than females?

Yes, particularly if we are focusing on elective reading of books (as opposed to reading required for work or study). It appears to start out in equal proportions as an infant but as they grow older the pattern of females spending more time reading electively grows.
64% of adult women read at least one book in 2012 (and 56 percent read at least one literary book), compared to only 45% of men (only 37 percent read at least one literary book). Source.

While women spend more time reading than males, the gap is not quite as wide as might be assumed, particularly given differences in labor force participation rates. A study from Australia provides some illumination of the impact of labor force participation rates on reading patterns. Just as in the US, males read less than females, however, from that study, 77% of females read for pleasure but only 66% of males. In contrast, 51% of males read for work or study but only 36% of females. Source.

In total, in the US, men spend about 95 hours a year reading (elective and non-elective) and women spend 139 hours, nearly 50% more. Males spend 0.25 hours per day and Females 0.36 hours per day on weekdays reading and 0.29 and 0.44 on weekends and holidays. Source.

Interestingly, while they do spend more time reading to children, women spend only 33% more time reading to children than do men, Males spend 0.03 hours per day and Females 0.04 hours per day, [Source] [0.05 and 0.07 respectively when children are under 6 years of age]

There is a material enthusiasm gap. 69% of females “really like reading” whereas only 41% of males respond so, a 68% gap. Source.

I have not been able to find robust empirical data for gender differentiated reading volumes for younger ages but the patchy small studies that I have come across are consistent with the adult patterns, particularly in high school.

Do males prefer nonfiction over fiction?

No. There are about an equal number of males (27%) who read only fiction as there are who read only nonfiction (28%) and 45% read both fiction and nonfiction. The appearance of males preferring nonfiction probably arises in part from comparison with females where there is a marked preference for fiction with 29% of females reading only fiction while only 17% read only nonfiction.
Approximately 50% of the population does no elective reading in a given year.

Among the 50% that do electively read, 23% read only fiction, 19% read only nonfiction, and 58% read both fiction and nonfiction. Source.

Among males, 27% read only fiction, 28% read only non-fiction and 45% read both. Among females, 29% read only fiction, 17% read only non-fiction and 53% read both. Source.

In terms of fiction and nonfiction, 80% of readers of fiction are female, 20% are male. Source 1 and Source 2.

Males read for discovery and knowledge acquisition about 25% more than females. Females read for escape and relaxation about 30% more than males. Source.

Are there gender patterns in reading form/genre/topic?

Yes.
The widest gap occurs in the history genre, which 40% of male readers but only 23% of female readers say they have read in the past year. There is also a decided male bias in the non-fiction genres of political (25% compared to 10%), current affairs (20% compared to 9%), and business (16% to 12%). Source. Other categories with 25% or greater male interest over female interest include sport, science, technology and atlas/dictionary. In all four categories, male interest is actually 2-4 times that of female. Source.

The most significantly female-oriented non-fiction genre is self-help, which 19% of female readers and 12% of male readers have read in the past year. Source. Other categories where female reading interest is 25% or greater than male interest include biographies, gardening, cooking, and hobbies/crafts. Source.

Are there gender patterns in title preferences among youth readers?

Yes. Renaissance Learning 2014 report, What Kids Are Reading has data on 10m school age children and their (supposedly) elective reading. I recognize the shortcomings of that program but it does cover 10m of 50m students and it is the only source of which I am aware that offers any sort of insight as what kids actually read versus what others think they ought to read. Source.
Taking Grade 12 top 20 most read nonfiction books, there are only 13 that are common between boys and girls and those thirteen titles are differently ranked. For example, Blind Side: Evolution of a Game is number 7 on the boy’s list but 19 on the girl’s.

Of the 7 different books on each list, the seven boy books are overwhelmingly sports/military. The seven girl books are overwhelmingly relationship/dependency/dysfunction.

Taking the Grade 12 top 20 most read books (i.e. fiction - only one nonfiction cracks the top 20 list, Night by Eli Wiesel on the boys list), thirteen are common between boys and girls.

Of the seven different books on each list, for boys, one is nonfiction, and four are adventure. For girls, five of the seven books are romance/relationship.

So basically a 60-65% overlap in interests but the differences conform to stereotype.

Are these gaps and patterns unique to the US or are they common among other countries?

While the numbers vary a bit by country, the patterns and gaps are common among OECD countries. The reading performance gaps as measured by educational tests between male and female students exists at just about all ages in all OECD countries and has been in evidence since the 1970s.


Are there other gender based differences?

Yes probably, but I cannot document other than direct experience and conversations with librarians. I have the strong impression that the YA category has muddied the reading waters. The overwhelming majority of YA is not age bracketed but rather the marketing category of literary fiction which is in turn read primarily by adult women. Among 12-18 year olds, the YA that is read is read substantially by females. The upshot is that for girls, with a documented predilection for fiction, there is a logical transition from picture books to chapter books to YA to adult. For boys, with a greater (proportionally) interest in nonfiction, there is a much larger percentage that go from chapter books straight to adult books. I think this is the blind spot in many conversations. Is Hot Zone a YA book? Clearly not. Is it read by YA (12-18)? Very much so. Is it read more by male young adults than female young adults? It appears so to me and those with whom I have discussed the issue (generically around nonfiction titles). How big is the population of books that are read by young adults which are not designated as YA books? I don’t know but my sense is that it is large.

In the Renaissance data, of the 27 titles among the 20 top boys and girls books read by 12th graders, only 13 might be considered YA (for example on ambiguity – Twilight; yes YA per publisher, no per author. I included it as yes in the count). This implies that about 50% of what young adults read are actually adult books.

There has been a thread that we need more YA nonfiction. But I wonder if that is the case. If boys are transitioning straight to adult nonfiction, is that in any way a bad thing? It is not clear to me that it is. Probably virtually everyone of us on this list serv (assuming a certain age) grew up in that environment, i.e. before the marketing category that became YA. Might there be a benefit to easier YA nonfiction books being available? Perhaps, but it is not clear to me that there is and Sully’s publisher letter would indicate that the benefit isn’t seen to be there commercially. Why would you go for a YA version of Kon-tiki, The Great Escape, A Night to Remember, 60 Seconds Over Tokyo, Krakatoa, etc. when the adult versions are accessible and gripping? Alternatively, are there any YA nonfiction books that come close to the caliber (and likely longevity) of those titles?


Are there agreed reasons for the differences in gender reading patterns?

No. The UK just completed a study on male reading gaps. Their conclusions follow. Source.

The home and family environment, where girls are more likely to be bought books and taken to the library, and where mothers are more likely to support and role model reading;

The school environment, where teachers may have a limited knowledge of contemporary and attractive texts for boys and where boys may not be given the opportunity to develop their identity as a reader through experiencing reading for enjoyment;

Male gender identities which do not value learning and reading as a mark of success.

Reading for pleasure needs to be an integral element in a school’s teaching and learning strategy and teachers need to be supported in their knowledge of relevant quality texts that will engage all pupils. There is a specific danger that a predominantly female workforce will unconsciously privilege texts that are more attractive to girls.

However, that is but one among many reports. There is no strong consensus. The issue of female dominated education environments possibly creating a mismatch with young male reader interests is a pretty commonly identified issue but the evidence is substantially anecdotal and logical. There aren’t many empirical studies that have been conducted to confirm or refute.


Are there institutional barriers to greater access to nonfiction?

I suspect so. My experience is that in general librarians tend to be much more knowledgeable and aware of front-list books and literary fiction than they are of back-list and non-fiction. This makes sense.

If boys are going straight to adult nonfiction, that is outside the youth librarian bailiwick (obviously might not be true for many particular librarians).

Literary writing in nonfiction exists in large quantity but it is overwhelmingly in the backlist which is a pretty big beast. There might be a hundred adult titles on WWII published in a given year but the number of them which are youth accessible and which are also written in literary fashion is quite a bit smaller.

Recommending quality nonfiction books requires as a predicate not only literary awareness (how well is it written) but also domain knowledge of the subject (how accurately is it written). With literary fiction, domain knowledge is less critical. The consequence is that nonfiction books are necessarily less well served on average. The population that have Variable X (literary awareness) AND Variable Y (Domain Knowledge) must necessarily be smaller than the population that only has Variable X.

The divisibility of nonfiction is greater than fiction. I have not figured out a way to define or measure this but see it a lot. Perhaps it is better said that the fungiblity of nonfiction is less than that of fiction. If you want a good literary nonfiction narrative based on WWII in the Pacific there are a couple of dozen books to choose from. Once you have exhausted those, there is little else. You can recommend WWII nonfiction literary treatments of Europe but the capacity to port the reader’s interest from one theater to the other is often surprisingly low. This may have less to do with the nature of nonfiction and more to do with the doggedness of interest of male readers but my sense is that there is an issue of fungibility. You can see this in the low penetration rates of nonfiction books compared to fiction in the Renaissance Learning 2014 report, What Kids Are Reading. Source.

For example, the top three nonfiction titles among 11th and 12th graders were Black Boy by Wright, Walden by Thoreau, and 1776 by McCullough read by 0.08%, 0.04% and 0.02% of 11th and 12th graders respectively. In contrast, the top three fiction titles were The Great Gatsby, The Scarlett Letter and The Cask of Amontillado read by 6.82%, 3.06%, and 1.91% respectively. So the top three fiction books were read by roughly 85 times as many 11th & 12th graders as the top three nonfiction. In other words, the reading population for a given nonfiction title is much smaller than a comparable given fiction title.

It should be noted that the differentials between nonfiction and fiction intensity are much smaller (still there, just smaller) at the K-1 level than the 11-12 level. At K-1 the ratios are more like 10 times the readership for fiction over nonfiction (by ranking) versus the 85 times at the older grades. This can be read that as children age their nonfiction interests become much more particular versus their fiction interests.

Thursday, June 26, 2014

Government failure UK edition

A rather interesting discussion at Restoring Anatole France by Tyler Cowen.
Situation: A large grocery chain in the UK, TESCO (something like our Walmart), has a problem as reported here. "Customers told us they were intimidated by antisocial behaviour outside our Regent Street store." Their solution was to "put studs in place to try to stop it." Homeless advocates identified this as an anti-homelessness strategy and mustered considerable, outrage, protests, and criminal mischief (one group poured concrete slurry over the inch high spikes. City government as represented by the mayor, took umbrage at TESCO's actions. TESCO immediately committed to removing the spikes and finding some other solution.

But this is interesting. TESCO here is the victim of illegal behavior (sleeping on TESCO property). They are a food related business so hygiene is obviously a significant policy issue. Customer safety is obviously a significant issue. The police are obviously unwilling or unable to address the problem.

So why is TESCO the bad guy, victim of demonstrations by homelessness advocates, berated by the government? They broke no law, they were seeking to comply with hygiene regulations, they were looking after the interests of their customers.

Well you can understand why advocates would exploit this. It is what advocates do. While there are some who are well intentioned and even effective, there are very many who are simply interested in being seen to be altruistic, though usually at someone else's expense. Protests like these do wonders for raising contributions.

I can't even begin to explain the Mayor's stance other than diversion. It is the failure of the state to enforce its own laws which is the nominal cause (the root cause being homelessness itself) so blaming the victim is a convenient strategy, particularly when the scapegoat is a large corporation.

Cowen looks at this in terms of economic principles, casting TESCO's initial response as a means of raising the cost (by raising inconvenience) to the homeless of sleeping on the TESCO property. As is often the case, a lot of variance in the comments as well as insight.
Yes, it seems to me that the issue is not about raising the costs of being homeless to deter homelessness. The issue is that the cost of dealing with homelessness is being borne disproportionately by Tesco instead of society as a whole.
There’s a cognitive/behavioral anomaly at work here. If we were to levy taxes on a small subset of randomly chosen people, or even corporations, to pay for homeless shelters, most of us would consider that to be unfair. It would be considered similarly unfair if the government were to randomly choose households that would be required to allow homeless to camp on their lawns or front porches. However, when homeless people “naturally” cluster around Tesco’s stores, it is considered “inhumane” for Tesco to not want the burden of dealing with the homeless to fall solely on their shoulders. I suspect that very few of those criticizing Tesco are volunteering their own homes to house the homeless.
As is so often in these cases, the advocates create a small sensation around a symptom (sleeping on TESCOs property by the homeless) without choosing to address the disease (homelessness itself). Homelessness (addiction, mental health, behaviors, etc.) is a notoriously difficult issue to effectively address. Better by far, in terms of advocates, to focus on the symptoms than the disease. Here, take an aspirin