Thursday, January 29, 2026

Haystacks, c. 1904-05 by Kees Van Dongen

Haystacks, c. 1904-05 by Kees Van Dongen (Netherlands, 1877-1968)




















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Wednesday, January 28, 2026

History

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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Snow Trees, 1986 by Eyvind Earle

Snow Trees, 1986 by Eyvind Earle (America, 1916-2000)
































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Tuesday, January 27, 2026

History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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Considerable Falls of Snow, 1938 by Eric Ravilious

Considerable Falls of Snow, 1938 by Eric Ravilious (England 1903-1942)


















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Monday, January 26, 2026

It rang out sweetly, like a swallow's call.

From The Swallow's Song: Odysseus' Bow by Armand D'Angour.

At a spine-tingling moment in Homer’s Odyssey, when Odysseus is about to reveal who he is to the suitors - whom he will then kill, all 108 of them, with his mighty bow and arrows - Homer creates a marvellous simile in which he compares the stringing of the bow to that by a minstrel of his lyre:

Just as an expert player on the lyre, 
a seasoned minstrel, pulls around the peg 
a sheep's-gut cord, and twists and makes it fast, 
so did Odysseus string the mighty bow 
with practised ease. He held it in one hand, 
his right, and with the other plucked the string: 
It rang out sweetly, like a swallow's call....

[snip]

The swallow’s call rings out sweet, because when it is heard it signals that the bird has returned from distant shores after a long and hazardous journey. The hearers of Homer’s song understand its significance: Odysseus, on the point of revealing his true identity after his prolonged and perilous travels, is finally home and dry.



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History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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Data Talks

 

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Wild Garden, Winter, 1959 by John Nash

Wild Garden, Winter, 1959 by John Nash (England, 1893-1977)


















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Sunday, January 25, 2026

Letter from Ulysses to Penelope from inside the Wooden Horse by Ronald Knox

Letter from Ulysses to Penelope from inside the Wooden Horse by Ronald Knox.  

Dear Wife, This letter comes to you from near the Trojan shore, 
where I'm concealed inside a jerry-built machine of war. 
Excuse the awful handwriting, it's all over the place: 
the reason is, my elbow's jammed in Demophoon's face. 
You'll notice that the ink I'm writing with is mixed in blood; 
don't worry, it's his leg, not mine, that gives a steady flood. 
The fact is this: I'm stuck inside a giant wooden horse 
constructed by Epeus - "laced with oaken ribs", of course. 
We chose the crew by throwing lots, the hardest lads together; 
I only wish the hardest lads weren't all as tough as leather. 
To what should I compare the situation that we're in? 
It feels as if we're packed like bloody sardines in a tin. 
The tickle up my nose from Thoas' crest I can't abide, 
And now Thersander's quiver's poking holes in my backside. 
The Trojans rolled us into town, they heaved us rough and quick; 
I've always hated sailing; as you know, it makes me sick. 
Right now they're throwing spears into the horse's flank to check; 
at any moment soon, I'm sure, I'll get it in the neck. 
Penelope, farewell. If I get out of here alive, 
I'll only ever go by foot, I swear, and never drive. 

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History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Sunrise in Åsgårdstrand, 1893-94 by Edvard Munch

Sunrise in Åsgårdstrand, 1893-94 by Edvard Munch (Norway, 1863-1944)



















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Saturday, January 24, 2026

Grok - the answer becomes worth the candle

I am so enjoying the rapid evolution of our modern epistemic environment.  There is much to lament (the disappearance of credible newspapers with real reporting), and much to be concerned about.  But oh, my - what a world is on the horizon.

The time span from Visicalc (1979) to Lotus 1-2-3 (1983) to MS Excel (1985) was roughly five years, maybe ten years for the emergent dominance of MS Excel over the earlier two.  Now it seems like five to ten months for one AI platform to outpace another.

I have been playing around with Grok, integrated as it is with X.  It is a pleasure to nearly instantaneously do reality checks on social media claims.  For example:
I am not a gamer.  I have a vague awareness of some of the ebbs and tides in that industry but no real knowledge.  The before and after pictures are compelling but are they real.  Are they even Ubisoft, and if so, are they even comparable groups.  I would have guessed not, but what does Grok say?

The implied argument seems to be:  Ubisoft focused on hiring female gamer talent, replaced its male employees with women, and subsequently suffered financial destruction.

My knee-jerk questions are

What was the female percent of Ubisoft's workforce in from 2007 to 2025 by year?

Did the Ubisoft market capitalization increase or decrease between 2007 and 2025?

Me:  What was the female percent of Ubisoft's workforce in from 2007 to 2025 by year?

Grok:  

Year                Female Percentage                    Notes/Source
2007                        20%                                    Fiscal year ending March 31, 2007; from Ubisoft's 2007 Reference Document.

2008                        No data available                Diversity metrics were not consistently reported in early annual documents.

2009                        No data available

2010                        No data available

2011                        No data available

2012                        No data available

2013                        No data available

2014                        No data available

2015                        No data available

2016                        No data available

2017                        No data available

2018                        No data available

2019                                21.3%                            Fiscal year ending March 31, 2019.

2020                                22%                               Fiscal year ending March 31, 2020. 

statista.com

2021                                23.5%                            Fiscal year ending March 31, 2021.  statista.com

2022                                25.5%                            Fiscal year ending March 31, 2022.  statista.com

2023                                25.9%                            Fiscal year ending March 31, 2023.  statista.com

2024                                25.9%                            Fiscal year ending March 31, 2024.  statista.com

2025                                26.3%                            Fiscal year ending March 31, 2025; from Ubisoft's 2024-25 Universal Registration Document.

Note: Data is based on fiscal years ending in March, which may not align perfectly with calendar years. Comprehensive gender diversity reporting by Ubisoft began around 2019, with earlier figures sparse and primarily from official documents or secondary sources like Statista. For years without data, no reliable public information was found despite extensive searches.

Twelve years to increase the female headcount from 20% in 2007 to 21% in 2019.  Then six years to raise it from 21% 2019 to 26% in 2025.  

The posts argument seems to be that there was a a very large increase in the female headcount from 2007 to 2014 but that is not evident from the (incomplete) numbers.  20% to 26% over eighteen years is not necessarily a disruptive issue.  It can be disruptive, depending on how the policies are executed but that is a different issue.

Also, there is the issue of where the headcount is being added and how that is affecting the rest of the organization.  If you are a software company and you pad your HR and Marketing headcount to achieve overall increases in quota, then you can expect an increase A&G costs without necessarily any increase in productivity.

This warrants a follow-on question.

Me:  What was Ubisoft personnel turnover by year from 2007 to 2025?

Grok:  [in part] Ubisoft does not publicly disclose detailed employee turnover rates (voluntary or total attrition/turnover percentage) on a consistent year-by-year basis from 2007 to 2025 in its annual reports, Universal Registration Documents (URDs), or other official filings. Comprehensive turnover statistics are rare for most companies unless specifically required or voluntarily highlighted in sustainability/HR sections, and Ubisoft's disclosures focus more on headcount totals, diversity metrics, and recent restructurings rather than historical turnover percentages.

Go to the link for more detail but basically not enough data is public and there was too much else going on (scandals within the company, restructurings i.e. involuntary turnover, etc.) for Grok to estimate an answer.

OK.  A marginal increase in female employee headcount but no visibility whether this came in the core business of software or not, nor how that might have affected retention of talent, always a strategic issue for software companies.

How about market capitalization.  How has that changed between 2007 and 2025?

Me:  What was the market capitalization of Ubisoft in 2007 and what is it in 2025?

Grok:  In 2007, Ubisoft's market capitalization at the end of the year (December 31, 2007) was approximately $4.60 billion USD (or around €2.57–€3 billion equivalent, depending on exchange rates at the time). This figure comes from historical market cap tracking sources like CompaniesMarketCap.com, which lists end-of-year values. Earlier in the fiscal year (as of March 31, 2007, Ubisoft's FY-end), it was lower, around €1.66 billion (roughly $2.1–2.2 billion USD at 2007 exchange rates), per Ubisoft's own 2007 Reference Document. Some sources show varying annual figures (e.g., ~$8.38 billion in one dataset), but these appear inconsistent or possibly misaligned with calendar-year vs. fiscal-year reporting; the ~$4.6B end-2007 value aligns across multiple reliable trackers.

In 2025, Ubisoft's market capitalization showed significant decline amid ongoing challenges (restructurings, losses, stock plunges). At the end of 2025 (December 31, 2025), it was approximately $1.01–1.02 billion USD (or €0.81–1 billion EUR). As of late January 2026 (current context around January 23–24, 2026), it had fallen further to roughly $0.64 billion USD (€547–812 million EUR, varying by exact date and source like Yahoo Finance, CompaniesMarketCap, or Euronext quotes), reflecting the stock trading below €4–6 per share with ~130–140 million shares outstanding.

Ubisoft went from $4.6 billion in 2007 to $7-10 billion circa 2010-2020 to $0.6 billion today.  

Clearly a picture of a troubled company.  But was the trouble because of a huge increase in female headcount.

In about five minutes Grok give me the sort of data which reinforces my skepticism of this Just So story.  

Software in general and entertainment software are highly volatile sectors so not surprising to see big numerical fluxes.  In such times, management errors can be very influential and compounding.  

I can imagine a scenario where management in 2007 communicated a desire to hire more female talent and might have been perceived to have had quota targets.  In that sort of environment, it would not be surprising to see an acceleration in unplanned turnover among your most experienced and successful software engineers whose talents were then in constant demand.  It wasn't the increase in female headcount that might have been the problem so much as perceived discriminatory behavior of management against the then current employees which could have been the problem.

I can imagine a scenario where management in 2007, riding a strong market, got distracted and focused on non-business critical DEI, ESG, and quota type issues which would have similar negative impacts on the existing employee base.  Such distraction might be seen as a leading indicator explaining the apparent later management problems.

There are all sorts of scenarios.

This post suggests that Ubisoft switched from a majority male to a majority female (photo) employee base and that that switch was what caused the decline in market capitalization.  Just three Grok queries confirms that the situation is far more complex than the suggested causal relationship.  Possibly a DEI and quotas mindset contributed to later problems but market capitalization increase and collapse are clearly being driven by a host of issues beyond female headcount.

In five minutes of thinking (and much longer to write up), with Grok, the proposed argument can be dismissed as improbable.  

What a blessing.  In before times, that would have been a multi-hour effort and not worth the candle.  Now?  It is an interesting enough argument to invest five minutes to arrive at a least an indicative answer.  

Excellent tool.  It provides pointers to both its sources and the issues in the data that need resolving in order to get at a more robust answer.   

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History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor





























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Data Talks

 

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Night Snow 2, 2019 by.Jeremy Miranda

Night Snow 2, 2019 by.Jeremy Miranda (America, 1980 - )



























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Friday, January 23, 2026

History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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Come Warm Your Paws by Chris Dunn

Come Warm Your Paws by Chris Dunn (England, 1987 - )






























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Thursday, January 22, 2026

History

 

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An Insight

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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The Valley of the Sambre, 1890 by Théo van Rysselberghe

The Valley of the Sambre, 1890 by Théo van Rysselberghe (Belgium, 1862-1926)




















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Wednesday, January 21, 2026

The peasant was the last to find his voice.

Medieval Technology and Social Change by Lynn White, Jr..  Page v.

Voltaire to the contrary, history is a bag of tricks which the dead have played upon historians. The most remarkable of these illusions is the belief that the surviving written records provide us with a reasonably accurate facsimile of past human activity. ‘Prehistory’ is defined as the period for which such records are not available. But until very recently the vast majority of mankind was living in a subhistory which was a continuation of prehistory. Nor was this condition characteristic simply of the lower strata of society. In medieval Europe until the end of the eleventh century we learn of the feudal aristocracy largely from clerical sources which naturally reflect ecclesiastical attitudes: the knights do not speak for themselves.  Only later do merchants, manufacturers, and technicians begin to share their thoughts with us. The peasant was the last to find his voice.

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History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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Data Talks

 

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Home To Bed by Gary Bunt

Home To Bed, 2022 by Gary Bunt (England, 1957-2025)





















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Try to love the questions themselves

From Letters to a Young Poet by Rainer Maria Rilke in 1903.  

Be patient toward all that is unsolved in your heart and try to love the questions themselves, like locked rooms and like books that are now written in a very foreign tongue. Do not now seek the answers, which cannot be given you because you would not be able to live them. And the point is, to live everything. Live the questions now. Perhaps you will then gradually, without noticing it, live along some distant day into the answer.

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It's dense, a bit like digesting a delicious whale

From a tweet by Anders K. @Falliblemusings  He is pointing out that the fashionable nihilism of Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind by Yuval Noah Harari is based on bad philosophy.

Deutsch has a concept he calls 'bad philosophy.' Not philosophy that's merely false, but philosophy that actively prevents the growth of knowledge. Ideas that close doors rather than open them. That makes problems seem unsolvable by design.

After soaking in Deutsch's framework (it's dense, a bit like digesting a delicious whale), it becomes clear: Harari's books are riddled with bad philosophy. They're smuggling nihilism in under the guise of scientific objectivity.

[snip]

Where Harari sees a species of deluded apes stumbling toward obsolescence, Deutsch sees universal explainers, the only entities we know of capable of creating explanatory knowledge, solving problems, and potentially seeding the universe with intelligence.

The difference isn't academic. Ideas shape action. If you believe life is meaningless, progress is a trap, and humans are hackable animals with no free will, how does that affect what you build? What you fight for? What you teach your children?

Harari's books sell because they flatter a fashionable pessimism. They let readers feel sophisticated for seeing through the "delusions" everyone else lives by. That smug cynicism is corrosive. And it's everywhere: in schools, in media, in bestselling books. More than half of young adults now say they feel little to no purpose or meaning in life. This is what happens when you teach an entire generation bad philosophy. Less progress, less health, less wealth. Less flourishing. And ultimately, a higher chance that civilization and consciousness go extinct.

Fortunately, there's another equally well-written, but much truer, account of homo sapiens, appropriately titled 'The Beginning of Infinity'. And this one smuggles no despair in by the backdoor.

The contrast he is drawing is with The Beginning of Infinity by David Deutsch.  

After Sapiens had been out for a year or two and had received such effusive praise across the spectrum, I broke down and purchased a copy expecting it to be an exciting fresh treatment of material with which I was broadly already familiar.  

It still sits upon the shelf waiting to be read.  I sampled it.  Read the first few pages.  Leafed through the chapters trying to find a snippet that gripped.  There are plenty of good books which fail that test and sit on a shelf and which I later read with enjoyment and benefit.  

But Sapiens failed the test and still sits, waiting for a second chance.  But Fallible Musings pushes an alternate to the head of the line and I am on the hunt for The Beginning of Infinity.

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Feeling insignificant because the universe is large has exactly the same logic as feeling inadequate for not being a cow.

From The Beginning of Infinity by David Deutsch, p. 34.  

I was wrong to be impressed by the mere scale of what I was looking at. Some people become depressed at the scale of the universe, because it makes them feel insignificant. Other people are relieved to feel insignificant, which is even worse. But, in any case, those are mistakes. Feeling insignificant because the universe is large has exactly the same logic as feeling inadequate for not being a cow. Or a herd of cows. The universe is not there to overwhelm us; it is our home, and our resource. The bigger the better.

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Tuesday, January 20, 2026

History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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Barge Haulers on the Volga by Ilya Repin

Barge Haulers on the Volga by Ilya Repin (Russia, 1870–1873)















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Monday, January 19, 2026

History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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Blackbird & Berries by Angela Harding

Blackbird & Berries by Angela Harding (England, 1960 - )

























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Sunday, January 18, 2026

History

 

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An Insight

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Data Talks

 

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View of the Bosporus by Ivan Aivazovsky

View of the Bosporus by Ivan Aivazovsky (Russia, 181-1900)




















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Saturday, January 17, 2026

Leeroy Jenkins!

Somehow these need to go together.  Not disavvowing CAPs point, just pointing out that it is incomplete. 
Those paying attention will of course have a valid argument that Leeroy Jenkins does not meet the minimum criteria:  "one reasonably smart normal guy."   
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History

 

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An Insight

 

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View Across Frenchman`s Bay from Mount Desert Island, After a Squall, 1845 by Thomas Cole

View Across Frenchman`s Bay from Mount Desert Island, After a Squall, 1845 by Thomas Cole (America, 1801-1848)
















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Friday, January 16, 2026

History

 

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An Insight

 

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I see wonderful things

 

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Offbeat Humor

 

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Self-deception can be the predicate to self-destruction. Sometimes kind indulgence results in disaster.

The Renee Good shooting in Minneapolis has been a clarifying Rorschach test.  Everyone has seen what they wanted to see from the very beginning (See Win Bigley by Scott Adams; two movies one screen.)  It took a few days but the answers were pretty much available from day three or so.  

There is still more to be discovered.  But there is clearly a history of difficult or questionable life choices leading up to Good's decision to insert herself into a chaotic ICE mission and then to confront and harass ICE officers performing their duties to enforce the law.  To the tragic decision to refuse lawful orders.  To her final and fateful decision, almost certainly reflexive, to escape the position she had placed herself in by accelerating her vehicle at an armed officer.

There are so many details and interpretations and arguments to be had.

It seems to me to be crystalizing that there are people (such as Renee and Rebecca Good) who are sufficiently radical and fanatical that they are willing to impose their own choices on everyone else.  ICE are lawfully in Minneapolis at the order of the President of the United States, executing lawful orders in compliance with the lawfully elected (popular majority as well as Electoral College victory) President, in pursuit of lawful policies (border control, immigration control, and crime suppression) which were at the center of the 2024 election.  

In other words - the fanatics have decided that their personal preferences override the outcome of our constitutional federal republic and its democratic processes.  It seems almost impossible to make the argument, as some seem to attempt, that they are defending rule of law and democracy.  

The second revealing aspect of this tragedy is the degree of self-deception possible by individuals.  We all of us know from studies and personal experience that all humans are capable of grave self-deception.  Just one of our attributes.  But sometimes the extent and impermeability of the bubbles of self-deception are still surprising.

As journalists have begun to slowly unpick the details of the participants in the tragedy, the scale of self-deception has become clearer.  Rebecca Good wailing "Why did you have real bullets?" after Renee Good was shot seems to be almost an almost incomprehensible level of naiveté.  

To me, though, there is a more subtle and as tragic degree of self-deception that seems to have emerged in the past few days.

Initially Renee and Rebecca Good were reported as married spouses.  However, reporters have not been able to find any record of a marriage.  They did come up with records of Renee Good's legal change of her last name to match that of her "partner", not spouse.  I parked this as possibly interesting information but was waiting for some coalescence of sources as to whether the charge was true.

Still kind of waiting but then saw this.
York links to, Renee Good Was Concerned About ICE, a Lawyer Says, but Wasn’t Following Agents by Mitch Smith of the New York Times.  If the NYT has accepted the charge, even against their own narrative preferences, then it suggests to me that the balance of evidence has come into alignment with the claim.  Rebecca and Renee Good were not in fact married.

In this same time frame, I came across a photo which I had seen before.  There was a detail in it, though, that took on new salience with the new reporting.  















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Look at her left hand.

She is wearing a wedding ring.  She and Rebecca are not married but Renee has chosen to take Rebecca's last name and she has chosen to wear a wedding ring as if they were wed.  

No telling at this point what to make of that picture, but there is an inescapable air of personal tragedy.  Made more tragic by Rebecca Good's statement following the shooting, "I made her come down here. It's my fault. They just shot my wife."

I am perhaps over-interpreting but if a couple are willing and able to redefine marriage so completely (a marriage of emotion but not by law?) then it seems more comprehendible that they could also be so self-deceived about the danger they were deliberately placing themselves in.

This degree of personal manipulation of perceived reality also reminds me of a picture shared by Pete and Chasten Buttigieg in September 2021, when they announced the adoption of twins.  
















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When this first appeared, I thought it must be some spoof attacking them by making it appear as if a gay couple had had children in a hospital (with hospital armbands and all).  I later learned the photos were legitimate and from the Buttigiegs which made me question their own self-presentation.  The reality eventuality emerged that the twins were born prematurely and with health issues.  The Buttigiegs arrived the day after the twins were born but quite a while before they were discharged from the hospital.  In the end, there was not quite the deception that had seemed to be going on in the first place.  

But there remains a feel of a hijacked social icon of the exhausted mother sitting up in the hospital bed holding her newborn, repurposed for an exhausted gay couple (exhausted from flying and driving) mimicking that iconic scene of maternity.

A photograph of simulated maternity, a photograph of simulated marriage - it all brings to mind George Orwell's classic Politics and the English Language in which he warns everyone of the authoritarian/totalitarian habit of trying to redefine reality by redefining words.  The Marxist habit of insisting that reality is a social construct rather than the far more obvious situation where all societies (and their languages) are shaped by reality.  

A ring does not make a marriage.  A hospital photo does not make a maternal birth.  Real officers of the law use real bullets when they are attacked and injured in the course of their duties.  

Bringing us back to Orwell.

The great enemy of clear language is insincerity. When there is a gap between one's real and one's declared aims, one turns as it were instinctively to long words and exhausted idioms, like a cuttlefish spurting out ink.

We hesitate to disabuse those who deceive themselves.  We want them to be happy.  As classical liberals, we indulge all beliefs which are not coercively imposed.  Even if we believe them to be misleading or unreal.

But as in the Minneapolis shooting there is a deadly corollary.  Self-deception can be the predicate to self-destruction.  Sometimes kind indulgence results in disaster.  

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Data Talks

 

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